RESEARCH & PUBLICATIONS



Future megafires and smoke impacts

This project examines the weather and climate factors related to known megafires and very large
wildfires that have occurred across the contiguous United States and projects the likelihood of
megafires occurring during the 2046-2065 mid-century time period. A variety of statistical
techniques and spatial scales were used in the analysis. The report ranks regions of future higher
likelihood very large fire locations based on overall probability. In addition, the potential for
large-scale smoke impact effects from very large fires was examined. This included the overall
potential for smoke emissions, as well as the potential for downwind transport to various kinds of
sensitive receptors. Combining future very large fire projections with site specific Smoke Impact Potentials allows for the ranking of locations based on the potential for large scale smoke impacts from very large fires. 

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