Future megafires and smoke impacts

View report.

This project examines the weather and climate factors related to known megafires and very large wildfires that have occurred across the contiguous United States and projects the likelihood of megafires occurring during the 2046-2065 mid-century time period. A variety of statistical techniques and spatial scales were used in the analysis. The report ranks regions of future higher likelihood very large fire locations based on overall probability. In addition, the potential for large-scale smoke impact effects from very large fires was examined. This included the overall potential for smoke emissions, as well as the potential for downwind transport to various kinds of sensitive receptors. Combining future very large fire projections with site specific Smoke Impact Potentials allows for the ranking of locations based on the potential for large scale smoke impacts from very large fires.