Eco-evolutionary context modifies a destructive plant invader’s response to climate

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Genotype-by-environment interactions increased the predictive accuracy of our statistical model of cheatgrass fitness with strong evidence for local adaptation to source climate. Survival responses to soil microclimate were density-dependent and there was stronger evidence for local adaptation at lower compared with higher planting density. Our model generally predicts increases in fitness with an increase in temperature across source populations. Important eco-evolutionary context (e.g. genotype-by-environment interactions, density dependence) should be considered when predicting plant fitness in an era of rapid environmental change.