Wildfire risk-based decision-making: Examining the incident strategic alignment process

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In the face of increased complexity, the USDA Forest Service (Forest Service) is emphasizing the use of risk-based spatial analytics and expert coaching of fire managers through consistent processes and practices to inform safer, effective, and strategic decision-making during incident management. The Incident Strategic Alignment Process (ISAP) integrates collaborative dialogue with risk management assistance (RMA) and other spatial analytics to develop and deploy a consistent, science-based strategic planning model for incident management. An important challenge is understanding the impact of frameworks like the ISAP to track their efficacy over time and their impact on approaches to incident management. Using concepts from the implementation of innovation literature, we investigated the following questions: (1) What is the perceived value of the ISAP according to line officers and incident managers who have used it? and (2) What factors affected the adoption and use of the ISAP at different system levels (i.e., individual, organizational, and cultural)? We examined three case studies: the 2023 Elkhorn Fire (Case 1), San Juan fires (Quartz Ridge, Bear Creek, Mosca fires; Case 2), and the Six Rivers Forest Lightning (SRF) Complex (Case 3), utilizing participant observation and 30 semi-structured interviews with key informants.