The sensitivity of snow ephemerality to warming climate across an arid to montane vegetation gradient

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The Great Basin, United States is an ideal system to study snow ephemerality across a broad climate gradient. To identify the climatic controls on snow ephemerality, we analysed moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow‐covered products from water years 2001–2015 using an object‐based mapping approach and a random forest model. Winter temperature and precipitation were the most influential variables on the maximum snow duration. We predict that warming the average winter air temperature by 2 and 4°C would reduce the areal extent of seasonal snow by 14.7 and 47.8%, respectively (8.8% of the Great Basin’s areal extent is seasonal in the historical record), with shifts to ephemeral snowpack concentrated in lower elevations and warmer regions. The combination of warming and interannual precipitation variability (i.e., reductions of 25%) had different effects on vegetation types. Vegetation types that have had consistent seasonal snow cover in their historical record are likely to have lower resilience to a new hydrologic regime, with earlier and more intermittent snowmelt causing a longer but drier growing season. Implications of increased snow ephemerality on vegetation productivity and susceptibility to disturbance will depend on local topography, subsurface water storage, and physiological adaptations. Nevertheless, patterns found in this study can help target management intervention to species that are most at risk.