A climate analog approach to evaluate seed transfer and vegetation transitions

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We use examples of plot data identified from a reference period (1961-1990) and mid-century (2056–2065) analogs across North American biomes to compare and illustrate the outcomes of projected vegetation change and seed transfer. These examples showcase that mid-century analogs may be located in any cardinal direction and vary greatly in spatial distance and abundance from no analog to hundreds depending on the site. The projected vegetative transitions will have substantial impacts on conservation programs and ecosystem services. Our approach highlights the complexity that climate change presents to managing ecosystems, and the need for predictive tools in guiding land management decisions to mitigate future impacts caused by climate change.