Research and Publications
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This project quantifies the effects of fuel treatments and previously burned areas on daily fire management costs, as well as summarizes recent encounter rates between fuel treatments and
wildland fires across the conterminous United States. Unexpectedly, we found that encounters with fuel treatments and previous fires increase daily fire management costs. Managers working in the field validated the concept suggesting that fuel treatments and previous fires are often areas where suppression efforts are applied in greater force.
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The climate of the US is strongly connected to the changing global climate. The statements below highlight past, current, and projected climate changes for the US and the globe.
Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901–2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes, and the last three years have been the warmest years on record for the globe. These trends are expected to continue over climate timescales.
This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.
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Findings of this research suggest that a hedge betting approach (employing more than one restoration method) can increase the probability of successful restoration. Broadcast seeding seed pillows and bare seed over two years resulted in a sagebrush restoration success rate of 86% compared to 36% if only one method was used in one year. Information generated from this study will help land managers successfully restore sage-grouse habitat after wildfires by pairing restoration methods with site characteristics.
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Our results demonstrated that the important predictors from Lidar-derived metrics had a strong correlation with field-measured biomass in the Random Forests (RF) regression models. The Stepwise Multiple Regression (SMR) results were similar but slightly better than RF. Overall, both RF and SMR methods explained more than 74% of the variance in biomass, with the most important Lidar variables being associated with vegetation structure and statistical measures of this structure (e.g., standard deviation of height was a strong predictor of biomass). Using our model results, we developed spatially-explicit Lidar estimates of total and shrub biomass across our study site in the Great Basin, U.S.A., for monitoring and planning in this imperiled ecosystem.
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Models explained much of the variability between predictions and manual measurements, and yet it is expected that future applications could produce even better results by reducing some of the methodological sources of error that we encountered. Our work demonstrates how terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) can be used efficiently to extend manual measurement of vegetation characteristics from small to large plots in grasslands and shrublands, with potential application to other similarly structured ecosystems. Our method shows that vegetation structural characteristics can be modeled without classifying and delineating individual plants, a challenging and time-consuming step common in previous methods applying TLS to vegetation inventory. Improving application of TLS to studies of shrub-steppe ecosystems will serve immediate management needs by enhancing vegetation inventories, environmental modeling studies, and the ability to train broader datasets collected from air and space.
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Since the 1990s, numerous Rangeland Fire Protection Associations (RFPAs) have emerged in Oregon and Idaho, and a recent 2015 law authorizes RFPAs in Nevada as well. RFPAs organize and authorize rancher participation in fire suppression alongside federal agency firefighters (typically, the Bureau of Land Management or BLM). These all-volunteer crews of ranchers have training and legal authority to respond to fires on private and state lands in landscapes where there had been no existing fire protection, and can become authorized to respond on federal lands as well.
There has been growing policy interest in better understanding the RFPA model. This study analyzed RFPA establishment, functioning, successes, and challenges through four case studies of individual RFPAs and their respective state programs in Oregon and Idaho during 2015-2016.
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This brief provides an overview of the JFSP’s mission, values, science delivery focus, and unique role in the greater fire science community – including leveraging partnerships for the greater good.
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This study provides the first time series estimates of PM2.5 smoke costs across mortality and several morbidity measures for the Western US over 2005–2015. This time period includes smoke from several megafires and includes years of record-breaking acres burned. Smoke costs are estimated using a benefits transfer protocol developed for contexts when original health data are not available. The novelty of our protocol is that it synthesizes the literature on choices faced by researchers when conducting a smoke cost benefit transfer. On average, wildfire smoke in the Western US creates $165 million in annual morbidity and mortality health costs.
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This study used a team with widely diverse expertise that gathered information from private, state, federal, and tribal landowners about their current forest and fire management practices and then built a computer model that can be used to facilitate collaborative decision making about forest management in fire-prone environments. The model allows stakeholders to compare alternative management scenarios to see how various approaches affect wildfire behavior, risk, and the associated delivery of valued ecosystem services. The model is now being used with two forest collaborative groups in central Oregon to help stakeholders understand the potential tradeoffs associated with management options.
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This study identifies a broader set of objectives, decisions and constraints to be integrated into the next generation operational research models. Including these changes would support evaluation of a suite of response options and the efficient resource packages necessary to achieve response objectives, aiding decision maker’s ability to minimize responder exposure while reducing the social, ecological and economic impacts of wildfires. Researchers follow with a proposed framework for expanding current large fire decision support systems, and conclude by briefly highlighting critical research needs and organizational changes necessary to create and implement these tools and overcome the negative consequences of positive feedbacks derived from historical and current wildfire management policies and strategies.