Research and Publications
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We used the National Environmental Policy Act to identify four types of science information needed for making decisions relevant to public lands: (1) data on resources of concern, (2) scientific studies relevant to potential effects of proposed actions, (3) methods for quantifying potential effects of proposed actions, and (4) effective mitigation measures. We then used this framework to analyze 70 Environmental Assessments completed by the Bureau of Land Management in Colorado. Commonly proposed actions were oil and gas development, livestock grazing, land transactions, and recreation. Commonly analyzed resources included terrestrial wildlife, protected birds, vegetation, and soils. Focusing research efforts on the intersection of these resources and actions, and on developing and evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation measures to protect these resources, could strengthen the science foundation for public lands decision making.
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The results project increases in the number of simultaneous 1000+ acre (4+ km2) fires in every part of the Western USA at multiple return periods. These increases are more pronounced at higher levels of simultaneity, especially in the Northern Rockies region, which shows dramatic increases in the recurrence of high return levels.
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High-severity burn area increased with increasing fuel availability and connectivity and decreased with increasing heterogeneity. In 2020, multiple large high-severity burn areas occurred in forests with high fuel availability, which only had small high-severity burn areas prior to 2020.
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Management prioritized for a single species (Brewer’s Sparrow) provided the greatest per-unit-effort benefits for that species but resulted in the lowest population outcomes for all other species considered. In comparison, prioritizations for multiple species within a single ecosystem (i.e., pinyon–juniper or sagebrush) resulted in larger population benefits for species associated with that ecosystem and reduced detrimental effects on non-target species associated with another ecosystem. For example, single species management for Brewer’s Sparrow resulted in an average increase of 1.38% for sagebrush-associated species and a 4.58% decrease for pinyon–juniper associated species. In contrast, when managing for multiple sagebrush-associated species sagebrush-associated songbird populations increased by 3.98% and pinyon–juniper associated species decreased by 2.36%, on average.
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Study results indicate, that as a proportion of area burned, contemporary fires experienced 2.9 to 13.6 times more stand-replacing fire (depending on the ecoregion) compared to the pre-colonization period. Non-wilderness areas exhibit somewhat higher prevalence of stand-replacing fire, relative to the historical fire regime, than wilderness areas (where logging is prohibited). The relatively small difference between non-wilderness and wilderness suggests that fuel accumulation resulting from fire exclusion has played a larger role than historical logging activities on the prevalence of contemporary stand-replacing fire. Prescribed fires do not exhibit a higher prevalence of stand-replacing fire compared to the historical fire regime.
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This study found prescribed fire used to control woody encroachment had lower maximum spot-fire distances compared to wildfires and, correspondingly, a lower amount of land area at risk to spot-fire occurrence. Under more extreme wildfire scenarios, spot-fire distances were 2 times higher in grasslands, and over 3 times higher in encroached grasslands and Juniperus woodlands compared to fires burned under prescribed fire conditions. Maximum spot-fire distance was 450% greater in Juniperus woodlands compared to grasslands and exposed an additional 14,000 ha of receptive fuels, on average, to spot-fire occurrence within the Loess Canyons Experimental Landscape. This study demonstrates that woody encroachment drastically increases risks associated with wildfire, and that spot fire distances associated with woody encroachment are much lower in prescribed fires used to control woody encroachment compared to wildfires.
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While prescribed fire and mechanical treatments in shrublands experiencing tree expansion restored understory vegetation and prevented continued juniper and pinyon infilling and growth, these fuel treatments also increased modeled surface fire behavior. Thus, management tradeoffs occur between desired future vegetation and wildfire risk after fuel treatments.
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We found strong support for top-down and bottom-up spatial and temporal controls on fire patterns. Fire weather was a main driver of large fire occurrence, but area burned was moderated by ignition frequencies and by areas of limited fuels and fuel contagion (i.e., fire fences). Landscapes comprised of >40% area in fire fences rarely experienced large fire years. When large fires did occur during the simulation period, a recovery time of 100–300 years or more was generally required to recover pre-fire vegetation patterns.
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Climate change is increasing fire size, fire severity, and driving larger patches of high-severity fire. Many regions are predicted to experience an increase in fire severity where conditions are hotter and drier and changes in fire regimes are evident. Increased temperatures, drought conditions, fuels, and weather are important drivers of fire severity. Recent increases in fire severity are attributed to changes in climatic water deficit (CMD), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), evapotranspiration (ET), and fuels. Fire weather and vegetation species composition also influence fire severity. Future increases in fire severity are likely to impact forest resilience and increase the probability of forest type conversions in many ecosystems.
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This research used in-depth interviews to explore variable support or opposition to three fuels-reduction projects occurring in the same region of north central Washington State, USA. Results indicate that differential support or opposition to each project stemmed from a unique combination of social factors operating in each locality (e.g., past history with fuels treatments, values for public land, environmental advocacy networks), the relationships that local populations had with agency members conducting each treatment, and the ways that managers engaged populations in the design of each treatment. We used existing frameworks for understanding collaborative potential/environmental conflict and for documenting the influence of local social context on adaptive wildfire actions to help explain emergent lessons about support or opposition to each project.