Research and Publications
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In this study, we present a framework for forecasting large fire occurrence – an extreme value event – and evaluating measures of uncertainties that do not rely on distributional assumptions. The statistical model presented here incorporates qualitative fire danger indices along with other location and seasonal specific explanatory variables to produce maps of forecasted probability of an ignition becoming a large fire, as well as numbers of large fires with measures of uncertainties. As an example, 6 years of fire occurrence data from the Western US were used to study the utility of two fire danger indices: the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook issued by Predictive Services in the US and the National Fire Danger Rating’s Energy Release Component. This exercise highlights the potential utility of the quantitative risk index as a real-time decision support tool that can enhance managers’ abilities to discriminate among planning areas in terms of the likelihood and range of expected significant fire events.
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Resource managers often need scientific information to match their decisions (typically short-term and local) to complex, long-term, large-scale challenges such as adaptation to climate change. In such situations, the most reliable route to actionable science is coproduction, whereby managers, policy makers, scientists, and other stakeholders first identify specific decisions to be informed by science, and then jointly define the scope and context of the problem, research questions, methods, and outputs, make scientific inferences, and develop strategies for the appropriate use of science. This study presents seven recommended practices intended to help scientists, managers, funders and other stakeholders carry out a coproduction project, one recommended practice to ensure that partners learn from attempts at coproduction, and two practices to promote coproduction at a programmatic level.
View report.
This study investigated the effects of mastication and hand-thinning treatments in piñon-juniper (PJ) woodlands on ecological processes including fire, and on a wide range of species, particularly vulnerable PJ obligate birds. Treatments drove major, persistent ecological shifts relative to controls. Tree cover and canopy fuels were reduced; concomitantly, down woody surface fuels, forb, and grass cover increased. Treatments exhibited rapid, large, and persistent increases in the frequency, richness, and cover of 20 non-native plant species including cheatgrass. Treatments substantially reduced the occupancy of piñon-juniper specialist and conifer obligate bird species.
View bulletin.
This bulletin summarizes the evaluation of more than 40 years of satellite imagery to determine what happens when a fire burns into a previously burned area. Results from this research are helping land managers to assess whether a previous wildland fire will act as a fuel treatment based on the length of time since the previous fire and local conditions such as ecosystem type, topography, and fire weather conditions. By factoring in the ecological benefits of fire, land managers are able to manage fire in a way that fosters more resilient landscapes.
View field guide.
** Updated 2017 ** The Fire Behavior Field Reference Guide (FBFRG) was developed as a hands-on user tool for field going Fire Behavior Analysts (FBANs), Long Term Fire Analysts (LTANs), and other fire behavior operational personnel. The FBFRG was created by the S-590 steering committee. The guide was developed by course coordinators, coaches, and field going personnel as a reference tool and look up guide for use in training and in the field by fire behavior analysts and fire managers alike.
View brief.
This brief highlights sustainable grazing practices and sagebrush treatments that enhanced herbaceous understory for sage grouse in years with average winters, but populations declined following severe winters. Sage grouse populations on the Deseret Land and Livestock (DLL) ranch increased for nearly 15 years when the ranch coupled deferred rest rotation grazing with small sagebrush removal projects. Birds responded positively as evidenced by lek counts that were higher and more stable on DLL than in nearby northeast Utah and western Wyoming. Total sagebrush removal cumulatively modified approximately 15% of DLL’s sage grouse habitat as individual small scale projects added up through time. Lek counts on DLL declined on the ranch and elsewhere following extreme winter and spring conditions. The cumulative effects of sagebrush removal may have contributed to declines on DLL due to less sagebrush food and cover for birds during severe weather.
View book.
This book adds to current knowledge about the regional status of the sagebrush ecosystem, the distribution of habitats, the threats to the ecosystem, and the influence of threats and habitat conditions on occurrence and abundance of sagebrush associated fauna and flora in the Wyoming Basins. As federal management agencies move toward management at regional scales through efforts such as U.S. Bureau of Land Management Rapid Ecoregional Assessments and U.S. Department of Interior Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, our ecoregional assessment approach and results for the Wyoming Basins can further advance a cohesive approach to management of the sagebrush ecosystem.
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This report examines federal officials’ and stakeholders’ views on (1) factors that affect federal-nonfederal collaboration aimed at reducing wildland fire risk to communities and (2) actions that could improve their ability to reduce risk to communities.
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This study evaluates the implications of ten twenty-first century climate scenarios for snow, soil moisture, and fuel moisture across the conterminous western USA. A decline in mountain snowpack, an advance in the timing of spring melt, and a reduction in snow season are projected for five mountain ranges in the region. The accelerated depletion of mountain snowpack due to warming leads to reduced summer soil moisture across mountain environments. Similarly, warmer and drier summers lead to decreases of up to 25% in dead fuel moisture across all mountain ranges. Collective declines in spring mountain snowpack, summer soil moisture, and fuel moisture across western mountain ranges will increase fire potential in flammability-limited forested systems where fuels are not limiting.
View analysis.
This meta-analysis was conducted to determine if there were consistent responses of understory vegetation to fire and thinning treatments in North American forests that historically experienced frequent surface fire regimes (<20 year fire-return interval, FRI). The most consistent effect of the treatments was the increase in non-native species following mechanical thinning and reduction in shrub cover following a burn. These differences suggest the two treatments may not be surrogates in the short-term (less than 5 years). Prescribed fire and thinning treatments can be used successfully to restore understory species richness and cover, but they can create different conditions and these potentially different outcomes need to be considered in the planning of a fuels reduction treatment.