Research and Publications
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Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services.
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To help inform strategic and cost-effective investments, we conducted a quantitative assessment of wildfire risk for the sagebrush biome. We used a geospatial fire modeling approach, customized for the sagebrush biome, to estimate spatially explicit burn probability and expected average annual area burned within three Sagebrush Ecological Integrity classes under the Sagebrush Conservation Design: Core Sagebrush Areas (CSAs), Growth Opportunity Areas (GOAs), and Other Rangeland Areas. We further used indices of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive grasses to characterize fire risk and recovery potential. Our approach indicates that nearly 530,000 ha are likely to burn in a typical contemporary fire year across the highest integrity Sagebrush Ecological Integrity classes (7% in CSAs and 31% in GOAs). Of the CSAs and GOAs likely to burn, nearly 9000 and 66000 ha, respectively, are expected to have low resilience or resistance and therefore highest loss potential. Cost-effective conservation investments should include wildfire protection for high-integrity sagebrush with low resilience or resistance. Protection objectives may be met with strategically placed fuel breaks intended to enhance fire prevention and containment efforts. Fuel treatments, including prescribed fire and mechanical activities outside of fuel breaks, are by contrast best suited for high-integrity areas with relatively high resilience and resistance. Those activities should be risk-informed and intended to maintain or improve ecological integrity and resilience to wildfire rather than to exclude fire altogether.
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We found that within the sagebrush biome, fuel breaks are generally located in areas with high burn probability and are thus positioned well to intercept potential wildfires. However, fuel breaks are also frequently positioned in areas with lower predicted fuel break effectiveness relative to the sagebrush biome overall. Fuel breaks also are spatially associated with high invasive grass cover, indicating the need to better understand the causal relationship between fuel breaks and annual invasive grasses. We also show that the fuel break network is dense within priority wildlife habitats. Dense fuel breaks within wildlife habitats may trade off wildfire protection for decreased integrity of such habitats.
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In recent years, biochar has become a way to dispose of woody debris from forest activities. A new General Technical Report (GTR) has been published by the Rocky Mountain Research Station covering the eight types of biochar production available to land managers. This product will help increase the use of biochar and provide resources to inform those who are interested in it.
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Across western North America, drought (measured by vapor pressure deficit [VPD], or how dry the atmosphere is) has contributed to a considerable increase in wildfire activity and extent in recent decades . Fire seasons are not only getting drier, they are also getting longer.
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Fire is strongly linked to outdoor recreation in the United States. Recreational uses of fires, whether in designated campgrounds or the backcountry, include warmth, cooking, and fostering a comfortable atmosphere. However, through inattention, negligence, or bad luck, recreational fires sometimes ignite wildfires. This paper evaluates whether the density of wildfire ignited by recreation or ceremony on U.S. Forest Service lands, and the size of such wildfires, is influenced by proximity to designated campgrounds, visitor density, previous and current drought conditions, and the type of vegetation surrounding the ignition point.
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We assessed whether issuance of Red Flag Warnings (RFWs) was associated with the number of human-caused wildfires and the probability of an ignition becoming a large wildfire (100 or more acres) across the western United States from 2006 through 2020. This information allowed us to examine the extent to which RFWs may reduce the number of human-caused wildfire ignitions.
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This paper uses qualitative data from a long-term ethnographic research project. Data include detailed fieldnotes, semi-structured interviews, and agency documents, which were systematically coded and thematically analyzed. In addition to the triggering effects of fatality incidents and agency initiatives to change organizational culture, external factors also directly impact the development of firefighter safety policies and practices. These include sociodemographic, material, political, and social-environmental factors. Identifying and understanding the influence of multi-scalar external factors on firefighter safety is essential to improving safety outcomes and reducing firefighters’ exposure to hazards.
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Although fuels treatments are generally shown to be effective at reducing fire severity, there is widespread interest in monitoring that efficacy as the climate continues to warm and the incidence of extreme fire weather increases. This paper compared basal area mortality across adjacent treated and untreated sites in the 2021 Dixie Fire of California’s Sierra Nevada.
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This study defines five metrics that collectively provide comprehensive and complementary insights into the effect of fire regimes on ecosystem resilience and components of biodiversity. These include (1) Species Habitat Availability, a measure of the amount of suitable habitat for individual species; (2) Fire Indicator Species Index, population trends for species with clear fire responses; (3) Vegetation Resilience, a measure of plant maturity and the capability of vegetation communities to regenerate after fire; (4) Desirable Mix of Growth Stages, an indicator of the composition of post-fire age-classes across the landscape; and (5) Extent of High Severity Fire, a measure of the effect of severe fire on post-fire recovery of treed vegetation communities. Each metric can be quantified at multiple spatial and temporal scales relevant to evaluating fire management outcomes. Results highlight four characteristics of metrics that enhance their value for management: (1) they quantify both status and trends through time; (2) they are scalable and can be applied consistently across management levels (from individual reserves to the whole state); (3) most can be mapped, essential for identifying where and when to implement fire management; and (4) their complementarity provides unique insights to guide fire management for ecological outcomes.