Research and Publications
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In this forum, we discuss current institutional arrangements that perpetuate scale mismatches in this system (i.e., institutional objectives, authorities, and capacities that limit coordinated actions to mitigate collective wildfire risk). We make a case for fireshed-scale coordination via rangeland Fireshed Councils, a proposed rangeland and fire planning and management unit that has both biophysical and social relevance to individuals and organizations engaged in fire risk mitigation. A rangeland Fireshed Council offers a venue for diverse group members to mix and match their respective rules and tools to navigate institutional barriers and capacity challenges in new ways. Operating in a collective arrangement at this scale aims to ensure that an individual’s or entity’s activities transcend traditional modes of planning (i.e., parcel-scale), complement concurrent management activities, and translate to fire-resilient landscapes and human communities. Rangeland Fireshed Councils will require resources and support from high governance levels for sustainability and legitimacy, as well as relative autonomy to determine how best to support local needs.
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We demonstrate that fire had differing effects on morphogroups of biocrusts, as crustose lichens were observed to be free of char. Mosses demonstrated char, suggesting that they may have experienced a reduction in cover, but they were not lost from the site, following fire. This finding could benefit studies on the restoration of biocrusts, because biocrusts may not need to be reintroduced to a site following fire. Studies related to the physiology of morphogroups and their susceptibility to fire would add to our understanding of this phenomena.
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We compare 2-year recruitment of emergent Pseudoroegneria spicata (bluebunch wheatgrass) seedlings in the sagebrush steppe biome for drill versus broadcast seeding methods across three seeding years, three landscape aspects and two soil types using a 95% confidence interval approach to avoid the penalty of multiplicity. We found drill seeding had 2.7 times greater recruitment of seedlings after 2 years compared with broadcast seeding. However, differences were highly subject to seeding year, aspect and soil type, likely because of soil moisture and temperature variations. Drill seeding had an advantage on clay soils with flat and north aspects (10.1 and 4.6 times greater for drill than broadcast seeding, respectively). In most conditions, drill seeding had greater recruitment than broadcast seeding, though in 2014 on south aspects broadcast seeding had 2.7 times greater recruitment than drill seeding. The results of this study demonstrate a need for restoration plans that account for spatiotemporal variation in seeding success.
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We evaluated how abiotic stress and biotic interactions determine native bunchgrass abundances across environmental gradients using additive models of cover data from over 500 plots re-measured annually for 5 years as they recovered naturally (untreated) after a megafire (>100,000 ha) in sagebrush steppe threated by the invasive-grass and fire cycle. The species included native bunchgrasses, bluebunch wheatgrass and Sandberg bluegrass, and the exotic and invasive annual cheatgrass. We asked whether associations between native bunchgrasses and cheatgrass were context dependent and if the SGH could help predict interspecific associations between species in a semiarid environment. The association of cover of each native bunchgrass to cheatgrass was not uniform, and instead varied from neutral to negative across environmental gradients in both space and time (i.e., weather), to which the species had nonlinear and sometimes threshold-like responses. Consistent with the SGH, bunchgrasses were generally more negatively related to cheatgrass (i.e., putative competition) in conditions which increased the cover of each bunchgrass – which were higher elevations and temperatures and lower solar heatload, and, for Sandberg bluegrass, drier conditions. There were few indications of positive interactions (i.e., putative facilitation) in stressful conditions, and instead associations were again negative, albeit weaker, in some of the conditions evaluated. Synthesis. These findings demonstrate that the negative association among native bunchgrasses and cheatgrass is context dependent and is determined by the abundances of both interacting species which is driven by environmental stress. This led to a hypothesis that together Sandberg bluegrass and bluebunch wheatgrass provide complementary resistance to cheatgrass at the landscape level, despite their different ecology and contrary to the management preference for bluebunch wheatgrass. Sandberg bluegrass might be critical for providing resistance against cheatgrass where invasion potential is greatest, i.e., at lower elevations, where bluebunch wheatgrass is scarce.
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Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database (n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.
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In this forum paper we briefly review current knowledge of common fuel treatment approaches, their intended benefits, potential risks, and limitations. We additionally discuss challenges for fuel treatment strategies in the context of changes in climate, invasive species, wildlife habitat, and human population, and we explore how advances in geospatial technologies, monitoring, and fire behavior modeling, as well as accounting for social context, can improve the efficacy of fuels management in sagebrush ecosystems. Finally, given continued potential for ecosystem transformation, we describe approaches to future fuels management by considering the applicability of the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework. The intent of the paper is to provide scientists and land managers with key information and a forward-thinking framework for fuels science and adaptive management that can respond to both expected and unexpected changes in sagebrush rangelands.
Themes and patterns in print media coverage of wildfires in the US, Canada, and Australia: 1986-2016
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Our results reveal that: (1) wildfire media coverage has increased over the past 30 years; (2) coverage is more varied than the common perspective, i.e. media continues to portray fires in a negative light; and (3) topic coverage varies significantly between countries.
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We demonstrate the application of a scale selection approach that jointly estimates the scale of effect and the effect of sagebrush cover on trends in population size using counts from 584 sage-grouse leks in southwestern Wyoming (2003–2019) and annual estimates of sagebrush cover from a remote sensing product. From this approach, we estimated a positive effect of mean sagebrush cover with a 95% probability that the scale of effect occurred within 5.02 km of leks. In an average year, we found that lower levels of sagebrush cover within these estimated scales could support increasing trends in sage-grouse population size when populations were small, but higher levels of sagebrush cover were needed to sustain growing populations when populations were larger. With standardized monitoring and annual estimates of vegetation from remote sensing, this scale selection approach can be applied to identify relevant scales for other populations, species, and biological responses such as demography and movement.
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Within a common garden, 69 populations from diverse seed sources and 13 taxonomic varieties were evaluated for 17 phenological, morphological, and production traits in 2016 and 2017. Analyses of variance showed taxonomic varieties and seed source locations differed for all plant traits. Linear correlation revealed source locations with warmer mean temperature and more precipitation generally had later phenology, larger umbels, more leaf area, higher leaf dry weight, and more seed and shoot dry weight production. Canonical correlation strongly linked seed source climates at source locations with plant traits evaluated in the common garden, suggesting climate-driven adaptive evolution. Canonical variates 1 and 2, explaining 60% of the variation, were used to develop regression models that predicted their values from climate variables across the study area. Using geographic information technology these were mapped into 12 seed zones representing 1.31 million km2 in the Western United States. These zones were designed to provide guidance to practitioners when sourcing sulfur-flower buckwheat for restoration projects. We expect this methodology can be successfully applied to other species to develop seed zones based on adaptive evolution.
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Here, we examine recent (2010–2020) trends in human migration across the US in relation to features of the natural landscape and climate, as well as frequencies of various natural hazards. Controlling for socioeconomic and environmental factors, we found that people have moved away from areas most affected by heat waves and hurricanes, but toward areas most affected by wildfires. This relationship may suggest that, for many, the dangers of wildfires do not yet outweigh the perceived benefits of life in fire-prone areas. We also found that people have been moving toward metropolitan areas with relatively hot summers, a dangerous public health trend if mean and maximum temperatures continue to rise, as projected in most climate scenarios. These results have implications for policymakers and planners as they prepare strategies to mitigate climate change and natural hazards in areas attracting migrants.