Research and Publications
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Historical wildfire ignition locations and NOAA’s hourly time series of surface weather at 2.5 km resolution are used to drive ELMFIRE to produce wildfire hazards representative of the 2022 and 2052 conditions at 30 m resolution, with the future weather conditions scaled to the IPCC CMIP5 RCP4.5 model ensemble predictions. Winds and vegetation were held constant between the 2022 and 2052 simulations, and climate change’s impacts on the future fuel conditions are the main contributors to the changes observed in the 2052 results. Non-zero wildfire exposure is estimated for 71.8 million out of 140 million properties across CONUS. Climate change impacts add another 11% properties to this non-zero exposure class over the next 30 years, with much of this change observed in the forested areas east of the Mississippi River. “Major” aggregate wildfire exposure of greater than 6% over the 30-year analysis period from 2022 to 2052 is estimated for 10.2 million properties. The FSF-WFM represents a notable contribution to the ability to produce property-specific, climate-adjusted wildfire risk assessments in the US.
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Specifically, we examine the difference in wildfire probability in similar forests under different management regimes (federally managed vs. privately owned) in eleven western states from 1989–2016 and compare the magnitude of the management effect to the effect of climate variables. We find a greater probability of wildfires in federally managed forests than in privately owned forests, with a 127% increase in the absolute difference between the two management regimes over the 28 year time period. However, in 1989, federally managed forests were 2.67 times more likely to burn than privately owned forests, but in 2016, they were only 1.52 times more likely to burn. Finally, we find that the effect of the different management regimes is greater than the marginal (one-unit change) effect of most climate variables. Our results indicate that projections of future fire probability must account for both climate and management variables, while our methodology provides a framework for quantitatively comparing different drivers of change in complex social-ecological systems.
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We organize our exploration of new horizons around three key areas, suggesting that PODs can enable climate-smart forest and fire management and planning, inform more agile and adaptive allocation of suppression resources, and enable risk-informed performance measurement. These efforts can be synergistic and self-reinforcing, and we argue that expanded application of PODs at local levels could enhance the performance of the broader wildland fire system. We provide rationales for each problem area and offer growth opportunities with attendant explanations and illustrations.
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Cows were fitted with VF collars (calves not collared) that use Global Positioning System positioning to contain cattle inside fuel break boundaries and record animal locations at 5-min intervals. End-of-trial forage utilization was 48.5% ± 3.7% and 5.5% ± 0.7% for areas inside and outside of the fuel break, respectively. Daily percentage of cattle locations inside the fuel break was initially > 94% but declined to approximately 75% by the end of the trial. Percentage daily locations of dry cows and cow/calf pairs inside the fuel break was 98.5% ± 0.5% and 80.6% ± 1.1%, respectively (P < 0.001). Our data suggest virtual fencing can be a highly effective method of concentrating grazing to reduce herbaceous fuel biomass within linear fuel breaks. Efficacy of this method could be substantially impacted by use of dry versus cow/calf pairs.
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We found the predicted positive relationship between mesic habitat availability and sage-grouse productivity, but annual precipitation explained additional variation in productivity even after accounting for mesic habitat availability. Hence, precipitation and drought may drive sage-grouse productivity via more than one mechanism acting on multiple demographic rates. Productivity was also limited by exotic annual grass invasion and conifer encroachment. Mesic habitat availability was a function of topographic relief, mean elevation, annual mean snow water equivalent, and winter temperatures, indicating that snowpack recharges the late summer mesic resources that support sage-grouse productivity. Management actions focused on maintaining and restoring mesic resources and drought resilient habitats, limiting the spread of exotic annual grasses, and reversing conifer encroachment should support future sage-grouse recruitment and help mitigate the effects of climate change.
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Our findings suggest that all deserts exhibited vulnerability to increasing fire disturbance because relatively low soil seed densities may not provide enough propagules for revegetation. Therefore, seeding of these communities may be especially important. In the cold deserts, this susceptibility was further evidenced by the fact that aboveground community composition in fire-affected areas was significantly different from the nearby unburned community even 30 years after fire and burned communities were associated with non-native species. That said, native species did exist in seed banks of burned sites and some taxa, like Sporobolus sp., occurred in high densities. Therefore, caution may be needed when using herbicide treatments to control exotic species as there may be unintended consequences of decreasing desirable species. In contrast, our warm desert sites exhibited less change in terms of seed densities, species richness and aboveground community composition following fire. In the face of more frequent fires, the lack of shrub seeds in the seed bank of all deserts was notable and we found no evidence of greater seed densities or unique species assemblages associated with shrub microsites.
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We tested the effects of site environmental variables (elevation, mean annual precipitation, heat load, and clay content) and management choices (seed source and planting date) on germination favorability and barrier occurrence (mean) and variability (coefficient of variation). Seedling exposure to barriers was strongly linked to management decisions in addition to site mean precipitation and elevation. Later fall plantings and seed sources with slower germination (lower mean germination favorability) were less likely to encounter freezing and drought barriers. These results suggest that management actions can play a role comparable to site environmental variables in reducing exposure of vulnerable seedlings to adverse weather conditions and subsequent effects on restoration outcomes.
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High severity wildfires led to the greatest decrease in cover for all plant functional types, while low severity wildfires caused the least decrease in the functional type cover in most cases, though some variations existed. Furthermore, the impacts of wildfires on vegetation cover were greater in woody (SHR and TREE) types than in herbaceous (AFG and PFG) types. Significant negative correlation existed between percent changes in AFG and PFG cover and SPEI indicating higher prefire soil moisture conditions likely increased fine fuel loads and led to a larger decrease in AFG and PFG cover following wildfires. Significant positive correlation existed between percent changes in SHR and TREE cover and SPEI indicating drier prefire conditions resulted in larger decreases in SHR and TREE cover following wildfires.
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We evaluated seeding bitterbrush (Purshia tridentata) after wildfire in former western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis ssp. occidentalis) canopy compared with interspace microsites at six locations for 3 yr post seeding. Bitterbrush abundance was 3.6-fold greater in former canopy compared with interspace microsites after 3 yr. Bitterbrush height was 1.5 to 2.5-fold greater in former canopy compared with interspace microsites. The first year after fire, exotic annual grass cover was 15.6-fold greater in interspace compared with canopy microsites. Abundance and cover of other herbaceous vegetation were generally also greater in the interspace. Exotic annual grass and native bunchgrass abundance increased substantially over time in former canopy microsites, suggesting abundant resource availability. Less herbaceous competition and presumably greater resource availability in former canopies probably resulted in greater success of seeded bitterbrush. These results suggest that capitalizing on spatial variability in environments can be used to increase restoration efficiency. After fire in western juniper−encroached rangelands, former juniper canopy microsites are a favorable environment for establishment and growth of seeded bitterbrush and could be targeted for restoration efforts to improve efficiency.
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We evaluated plant community succession following prescribed fire on Artemisia arbuscula var. arbuscula (low sagebrush) steppe in southeastern Oregon. Treatments were “prescribed burned” (burn; fall 2012) and “unburned” (control) low sagebrush a steppe, and the study design was a randomized complete block with 4 replicates per treatment. Herbaceous yield and vegetation canopy cover and density were compared between treatments (2012–2020). Fire practically eliminated low sagebrush and there was no recruitment of new plants in the first 8 years after burning. Herbaceous yield in the burn treatment was about double the control for most of the postfire period. Native perennial grasses and forbs constituted 94% to 96% and Bromus tectorum L. (cheatgrass) 0.2% to 2% of total herbaceous yield in the control. In the burn treatment, perennial grasses and forbs constituted 83% to 87%, native annual forbs 2% to 5%, and cheatgrass 3% to 9% of total herbaceous yield. Despite an increase in cheatgrass, the burned low sagebrush sites were dominated by herbaceous perennial grasses and forbs and exhibited high levels of resilience and resistance. After prescribed fire, for the study sites and comparable low sagebrush associations, weed control or seeding are not necessary to recover the native herbaceous community. However, the results in our study are for low-severity prescribed fire in intact low sagebrush plant communities. Higher-severity fire, as might occur with wildfire, and in low sagebrush communities having greater prefire invasive weed composition should not be assumed to develop similarly high levels of community resilience and resistance.