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Fuel breaks were least successful in areas classified as having low resilience to disturbance and low resistance to invasion, in areas composed of primarily woody fuels, and when operating in high temperature and low precipitation conditions. Fuel breaks were most effective in areas where fine fuels dominated and in areas that were readily accessible. Maintenance history and fuel break type also contributed to the probability of containment. Overall results indicate a complex and sometimes paradoxical relationship between landscape characteristics that promote wildfire spread and those that impact fuel break effectiveness. Finally, we developed predictive maps of fuel break effectiveness by fuel break type to further elucidate these complex relationships and to inform urgently needed fuel break placement and maintenance priorities across the sagebrush biome.
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Our modeling approach identifies spatial and temporal patterns of wildfire potential and risk, which is critical information to guide decision-making. Because the drivers behind risk shift over time, strategies to mitigate risk may need to account for multiple drivers simultaneously.
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We found the probability of WUI exposure from an active fire had close relationships with several explanatory variables including wind gust velocity, suppression difficulty, control potential, fireline arrangement, road densities, WUI block sizes, and the distance between WUI and the fire’s front. We found that the most important predictor variables influencing WUI exposure probability were gust, fireline arrangement, and distance from a fire ignition location to a WUI. We found that random forest models can achieve reasonable accuracy in estimating WUI fire exposure probabilities.
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Pre-fire differences in fuel and vegetation responses among treatments largely did not persist or were not detectible 1 to 2 years following wildfire. These findings suggest that the extreme wildfire conditions superseded long-term treatment differences in many fuel and vegetation metrics observed prior to wildfire. Despite subtle treatment differences, the hand thinned treatment resulted in the lowest change in fuel loading relative to all other treatments. Lastly, pre-fire differences in exotic species among fuel treatments were retained following wildfire, suggesting some treatments may have greater potential for exotic species expansion or type conversion to exotic grasslands.
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Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the “firehose” of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.
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By comparing connectivity patterns over time, we found that most of the biome experienced moderate change; the amount and type of change varied spatially, indicating that areas differ in the trend direction and magnitude of change. Two different types of designated areas of conservation and management interest had relatively high proportions of stable, high-connectivity patterns over time and stable connectivity trends on average. These results provide ecological information on sagebrush connectivity persistence across spatial and temporal scales that can support targeted actions to address changing structural connectivity and to maintain functioning, connected ecosystems.
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We find that the inclusion of sagebrush-obligates expands the model-selected area of consideration for conifer management, likely because habitat overlap between sagebrush-obligates is imperfect. The inclusion of pinyon jay, a woodland-obligate, resulted in substantial shifts in the distribution of model-selected priority areas for conifer removal, particularly away from pinyon jay strongholds in Nevada and east-central California. Finally, we compared the conifer optimizations created here with estimates of ongoing conifer removal efforts across the intermountain west and find that a small proportion (13−18%) of management efforts had occurred on areas predicted as being important for pinyon jay, suggesting that much of the ongoing work is already successfully avoiding critical pinyon jay habitat areas.
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Our findings demonstrate that targeted sage grouse habitat restoration under SGI was not at odds with protection of pinyon jay populations. Rather, conifer management has largely occurred among northern sagebrush landscapes where models suggest that past cuts likely benefit Brewer’s sparrow and sage thrasher while avoiding pinyon jay habitats.
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We investigated how incident management teams consider and incorporate US Forest Service (USFS) fuel treatments into wildfire response. Our goals were to: 1) understand how forest and fire personnel communicate about existing treatments; 2) understand what treatment characteristics they look for to meet different objectives; and 3) gather recommendations for improving fuel treatments to support incident management. We conducted 59 interviews with fire and fuel personnel in the western United States. This work included seven case studies of 2020 and 2021 wildfires where existing fuel treatments were considered in incident response.
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Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to
2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support
postfire conifer regeneration.