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The economics of wildfire in the US

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Wildfire is a natural phenomenon with substantial economic consequences, and its management is complex, dynamic, and rife with incentive problems. This article reviews the contribution of economics to our understanding of wildfire and highlights remaining knowledge gaps. We first summarize economic impacts to illustrate scale and trends. We then focus on wildfire management in three phases: mitigation before fires occur, response during  fires, and response after fires. The literature highlights economic interdependencies and spillover effects across fire-prone landscapes as the source of economic inefficiencies and motivation for public institutional response. The literature illustrates the complexity of this problem with its myriad threads, including the trade-offs of living in fire-prone environments, the prospects for using controlled fire and mechanical fuel removal for reducing wildfire severity, the decision-making environment that firefighters face, and the economic consequences of wildfire smoke on health. Economics provides valuable insights, but fundamental questions remain unanswered.

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Contrasting the efficiency of landscape versus community protection fuel treatment strategies to reduce wildfire exposure and risk

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We examined the financial efficiency and effectiveness of landscape versus community protection fuel treatments to reduce structure exposure and loss to wildfire on a large fire-prone area of central Idaho. The study area contained 63,707 structures distributed in 20 rural communities and resorts, encompassing 13,804 km2. We used simulation modeling to estimate expected structure loss based on burn probability and characteristics of the home ignition zone. We then designed three fuel management strategies that targeted treatments to: 1) the surrounding areas predicted to be the source of exposure to communities from large fires, 2) the home ignition zone, and 3) a combination of the landscape and home ignition zone. We evaluated each treatment scenario in terms of exposure and expected structure loss compared to a no-treatment scenario. The potential revenue from wood products was estimated for each scenario to assess the cost-efficiency. We found that the combined landscape and home ignition zone treatment scenario which treated 5.7% of the study area resulted in the highest overall reduction in predicted exposure (47.5%, 100 structures yr- 1) and predicted loss (69.1%, 57 structures yr- 1). Home ignition zone treatments provided the best predicted economic and per area treated performance where exposure and loss were reduced by one structure by treating 89 and 111 ha per year, respectively, with an annual cost of $33,645 and $73,672. Revenue from thinning was the highest for landscape fuel treatments and covered 16% of the required investment. This work highlighted economic and risk tradeoffs associated with alternative fuel treatment strategies to protect developed areas from large wildland fires.

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Expanded framework for wildland-urban interfaces and their management

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Wildland–urban interfaces (WUIs), the juxtaposition of highly and minimally developed lands, are an increasingly prominent feature on Earth. WUIs are hotspots of environmental and ecological change that are often priority areas for planning and management. A better understanding of WUI dynamics and their role in the coupling between cities and surrounding wildlands is needed to reduce the risk of environmental hazards, ensure the continued provisioning of ecosystem services, and conserve threatened biodiversity. To fill this need, we propose an expanded framework for WUIs that not only conceptualizes these interfaces as emergent and functional components of socioecological processes but also extends them vertically from the bedrock to the top of the vegetation and horizontally across heterogeneous landscapes. This framework encourages management that reconciles pervasive trade-offs between development and resulting multiple environmental impacts. Focusing on southern California as a case study, we use the framework to facilitate integration across disciplines and between scientists and managers.

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Effects of a decade of grazing exclusion on three Wyoming big sagebrush community types

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Thus, to understand the effects of removing contemporary grazing, we compared contemporary grazed areas to long-term (+10 yrs.) grazing exclusion areas in three common Wyoming big sagebrush community types: intact, degraded, and exotic annual grass-dominated types. Plant community characteristics (cover, density, diversity, richness, dissimilarity) were measured in 2020 and 2021 in five grazed and grazing excluded areas within each community type. Most plant community characteristics were not influenced by grazing exclusion, suggesting that the removal of contemporary grazing has little effect on Wyoming big sagebrush plant communities. The effect of grazing exclusion on Sandberg bluegrass abundance and litter cover varied among community types, suggesting that grazing exclusion effects slightly varied among community types. In contrast, most plant community characteristics varied among community types and between years, suggesting that grazing management plans need to account for the spatial and temporal variability among Wyoming big sagebrush communities. Furthermore, our results suggest that contemporary grazing exclusion has negligible effects compared to contemporary grazing on plant communities, and that exclusion of contemporary grazing (passive restoration) does not promote the recovery of degraded and annual grass invaded plant communities.

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Influences of weather on production dynamics in Wyoming big sagebrush

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Here, we investigated the effects of seasonal weather and plant associations, related to abiotic characteristics, on herbaceous production dynamics across 44 intact, representative sagebrush steppe sites across eastern Oregon from 2003 to 2012. We tested for the effects of sampling year, lagged precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration predictors, as well as prior year biomass and plant association on production of major herbaceous functional groups. We also tested for synchrony across functional groups and plant associations. We found that spring precipitation was the most consistent predictor of production. However, several other variables including prior year weather significantly affected production. Production sensitivity to weather was combined with high synchrony across functional groups and associations, suggesting low potential for production stability associated with these factors in sagebrush steppe in the northern Great Basin.

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Integrating rangeland fire planning and management: The scales, actors, and processes

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In this forum, we discuss current institutional arrangements that perpetuate scale mismatches in this system (i.e., institutional objectives, authorities, and capacities that limit coordinated actions to mitigate collective wildfire risk). We make a case for fireshed-scale coordination via rangeland Fireshed Councils, a proposed rangeland and fire planning and management unit that has both biophysical and social relevance to individuals and organizations engaged in fire risk mitigation. A rangeland Fireshed Council offers a venue for diverse group members to mix and match their respective rules and tools to navigate institutional barriers and capacity challenges in new ways. Operating in a collective arrangement at this scale aims to ensure that an individual’s or entity’s activities transcend traditional modes of planning (i.e., parcel-scale), complement concurrent management activities, and translate to fire-resilient landscapes and human communities. Rangeland Fireshed Councils will require resources and support from high governance levels for sustainability and legitimacy, as well as relative autonomy to determine how best to support local needs.

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Could biological soil crusts act as natural fire fuel breaks in the sagebrush steppe?

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We demonstrate that fire had differing effects on morphogroups of biocrusts, as crustose lichens were observed to be free of char. Mosses demonstrated char, suggesting that they may have experienced a reduction in cover, but they were not lost from the site, following fire. This finding could benefit studies on the restoration of biocrusts, because biocrusts may not need to be reintroduced to a site following fire. Studies related to the physiology of morphogroups and their susceptibility to fire would add to our understanding of this phenomena.

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Plant recruitment in drylands varies by site, year, and seeding technique

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We compare 2-year recruitment of emergent Pseudoroegneria spicata (bluebunch wheatgrass) seedlings in the sagebrush steppe biome for drill versus broadcast seeding methods across three seeding years, three landscape aspects and two soil types using a 95% confidence interval approach to avoid the penalty of multiplicity. We found drill seeding had 2.7 times greater recruitment of seedlings after 2 years compared with broadcast seeding. However, differences were highly subject to seeding year, aspect and soil type, likely because of soil moisture and temperature variations. Drill seeding had an advantage on clay soils with flat and north aspects (10.1 and 4.6 times greater for drill than broadcast seeding, respectively). In most conditions, drill seeding had greater recruitment than broadcast seeding, though in 2014 on south aspects broadcast seeding had 2.7 times greater recruitment than drill seeding. The results of this study demonstrate a need for restoration plans that account for spatiotemporal variation in seeding success.

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Does post-fire recovery of native grasses across abiotic-stress and invasive-grass gradients match theoretical predictions, in sagebrush steppe?

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We evaluated how abiotic stress and biotic interactions determine native bunchgrass abundances across environmental gradients using additive models of cover data from over 500 plots re-measured annually for 5 years as they recovered naturally (untreated) after a megafire (>100,000 ha) in sagebrush steppe threated by the invasive-grass and fire cycle. The species included native bunchgrasses, bluebunch wheatgrass and Sandberg bluegrass, and the exotic and invasive annual cheatgrass. We asked whether associations between native bunchgrasses and cheatgrass were context dependent and if the SGH could help predict interspecific associations between species in a semiarid environment. The association of cover of each native bunchgrass to cheatgrass was not uniform, and instead varied from neutral to negative across environmental gradients in both space and time (i.e., weather), to which the species had nonlinear and sometimes threshold-like responses. Consistent with the SGH, bunchgrasses were generally more negatively related to cheatgrass (i.e., putative competition) in conditions which increased the cover of each bunchgrass – which were higher elevations and temperatures and lower solar heatload, and, for Sandberg bluegrass, drier conditions. There were few indications of positive interactions (i.e., putative facilitation) in stressful conditions, and instead associations were again negative, albeit weaker, in some of the conditions evaluated. Synthesis. These findings demonstrate that the negative association among native bunchgrasses and cheatgrass is context dependent and is determined by the abundances of both interacting species which is driven by environmental stress. This led to a hypothesis that together Sandberg bluegrass and bluebunch wheatgrass provide complementary resistance to cheatgrass at the landscape level, despite their different ecology and contrary to the management preference for bluebunch wheatgrass. Sandberg bluegrass might be critical for providing resistance against cheatgrass where invasion potential is greatest, i.e., at lower elevations, where bluebunch wheatgrass is scarce.

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New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in sagebrush

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Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database (n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.

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