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Approximately 75% of models tested had acceptable, excellent, or outstanding predictive ability. The models that performed poorly were primarily models predicting stem mortality of angiosperms or tree mortality of thin-barked conifers. This suggests that different approaches—such as different model forms, better estimates of bark thickness, and additional predictors—may be warranted for these taxa. Future data collection and research should target the geographical and taxonomic data gaps and poorly performing models identified in this study. Our evaluation of post-fire tree mortality models is the most comprehensive effort to date and allows users to have a clear understanding of the expected accuracy in predicting tree death from fire for 44 species.
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This study’s objective was to determine whether remnant/unburned sagebrush patches contribute to sagebrush recovery in surrounding burned areas surrounding them.
Key Findings:
While conventional wisdom is that sagebrush seeds remain close to the mother plant, we found that a measurable percentage of seeds travel up to tens of meters. Remnant patches of sagebrush after fire could contribute to natural regeneration in surrounding landscapes. However, seed arrival was highly variable between sites and work remains to be done to predict where natural regeneration will be sufficient to rehabilitate sagebrush steppe after wildfire.
Using data collected from 120 plots over three years (2011–2013) and 2012 National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery, we evaluated (1) whether well pads are more likely to be located in areas of pygmy rabbit habitat, (2) whether the presence and abundance of pygmy rabbits are related to distance from infrastructure, and, if so, (3) how much of the total surface area on a gas field is affected. Well pads on three gas fields occurred in higher quality pygmy rabbit habitat than did a set of randomly generated points, and the abundance and probability of pygmy rabbits being present were lower within approximately 0.5–1.5 km of the nearest road and 2 km of well pads and utilities. Buffering a digital layer of roads and well pads on one gas field revealed that nearly 82% of the (4417 km2) surface area was within 1 km of infrastructure, and over 95% of the gas field surface area was within 2 km. This need not be the case on future gas fields. Directional and horizontal well drilling technologies now make it possible for gas to be recovered from a greater area per well pad, enabling future gas field developments that require fewer well pads, roads, and pipeline corridors. Such changes would enable increased well pad spacing and provide the opportunity to locate gas field infrastructure in areas of poor quality wildlife habitat, avoid high priority habitat, and conserve a greater amount of on‐field wildlife habitat overall.
A resilience-based approach to management can facilitate regional planning by guiding the allocation of management resources to where they will have optimal socioecological benefits. This type of approach requires a sound understanding of the environmental factors, ecosystem attributes and processes, and landscape components that influence ecological resilience of the focal system. Chambers et al. review and integrate resilience concepts to help inform natural resources management decisions for ecosystems and landscapes. They describe the six key components of a resilience-based approach, beginning with managing for adaptive capacity and selecting an appropriate spatial extent and grain. Additional components include developing an understanding of the factors influencing the general and ecological resilience of ecosystems and landscapes, the landscape context and spatial resilience, pattern and process interactions and their variability, and relationships among ecological and spatial resilience and the capacity to support habitats and species. They suggest that a spatially explicit approach that couples geospatial information on general and spatial resilience to disturbance with information on resources, habitats, or species provides the foundation for resilience-based management. A case study from the sagebrush biome is provided that is widely used by the management agencies.
Improving decision processes and the informational basis upon which decisions are made in pursuit of safer and more effective fire response have become key priorities of the fire research community. One area of emphasis is bridging the gap between fire researchers and managers through development of application-focused, operationally relevant decision support tools. In this paper we focus on a family of such tools designed to characterise the difficulty of suppression operations by weighing suppression challenges against suppression opportunities. These tools integrate potential fire behaviour, vegetation cover types, topography, road and trail networks, existing fuel breaks and fireline production potential to map the operational effort necessary for fire suppression. We include case studies from two large fires in the USA and Spain to demonstrate model updates and improvements intended to better capture extreme fire behaviour and present results demonstrating successful fire containment where suppression difficulty index (SDI) values were low and containment only after a moderation of fire weather where SDI values were high. A basic aim of this work is reducing the uncertainty and increasing the efficiency of suppression operations through assessment of landscape conditions and incorporation of expert knowledge into planning.
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The toolkit is comprised of three elements:
- A roadmap for invasive grass management in the West, with new best management practices for the identification, protection, and expansion of “core” areas – regions with relatively low, or no, annual grass invasion;
- Case studies highlighting the application of these practices in Idaho and Wyoming; and
- A new geospatial data layer (which uses analytical tools to compile existing federal data) to help state and local managers assess invasive annual grasses within their jurisdictions, while also offering opportunities to identify new cross-boundary collaborative projects.
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In this second phase of the research, we conducted in-depth case studies of federal land management units that were actively working to increase their application of prescribed fire. We selected four case studies based on interviewee recommendations from our first round of interviews. These cases were: the San Juan National Forest (Colorado), the BLM Socorro Field Office/Cibola National Forest (New Mexico), the Sierra National Forest (California), and the Rogue-River Siskiyou National Forest (Oregon), with a focus on the Ashland Forest Resiliency Project in the Siskiyou Mountains Ranger District. For each case study, we conducted between 11 and 17 interviews with Forest Service or BLM staff members and key external partners. In total, 53 interviews were conducted with 62 interviewees for this phase of the project. Interviews focused on the nature of the prescribed fire program on the unit, key partners, primary challenges, and strategies and opportunities for increasing use of prescribed fire.
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The United States Forest Service 2012 Planning Rule prioritizes making lands resilient to climate change. Although researchers have investigated the history of “resilience” and its multiple interpretations, few have examined perceptions or experiences of resource staff tasked with implementing resilience. This study interviewed Forest Service staff in the Southwestern Region to evaluate how managers and planners interpret resilience as an agency strategy, execution of resilience in management, and climate change’s impact on perception of resilience. Interviewees identified resilience as a main driver of agency response to land management but, when applying the concept, experienced barriers including ambiguity; scale; management specificity versus broad, adaptive landscape approach; and lack of metrics or examples. Interviewees found restoring ecosystem function to promote resilience while planning for future changed landscapes difficult. They desired landscape-scale collaboration to understand how to operationalize the resilience directive. Our findings revealed obstacles and opportunities for resilience in a managerial context.
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We argue that prescribed fire science requires a fundamentally different approach to connecting related disciplines of physical, natural, and social sciences. We also posit that research aimed at questions relevant to prescribed fire will improve overall wildland fire science and stimulate the development of useful knowledge about managed wildfires. Because prescribed fires are increasingly promoted and applied for wildfire management and are intentionally ignited to meet policy and land manager objectives, a broader research agenda incorporating the unique features of prescribed fire is needed. We highlight the primary differences between prescribed fire science and wildfire science in the study of fuels, fire behavior, fire weather, fire effects, and fire social science. Wildfires managed for resource benefits (“managed wildfires”) offer a bridge for linking these science frameworks. A recognition of the unique science needs related to prescribed fire will be key to addressing the global challenge of managing wildland fire for long-term sustainability of natural resources.
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This study asked whether success in restoration seedings of the foundational species big sagebrush was related to estimated water deficit in previously burned areas in the western United States. Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), a widely used drought index, was not predictive of whether sagebrush had reestablished. In contrast, wet-warm days elicited a critical drought threshold response, with successfully reestablished sites having experienced 7 more wet-warm days than unsuccessful sites during the first March following summer wildfire and restoration. Thus, seemingly small-scale and short-term changes in water availability and temperature can contribute to major ecosystem shifts, as many of these sites remained shrubless two decades later. These findings help clarify the definition of ecological drought for a foundational species and its imperiled semi-arid ecosystem. Drought is well known to affect the occurrence of wildfires, but drought in the year(s) after fire can determine whether fire causes long-lasting, negative impacts on ecosystems.