Article / Book
View article.
In this study, we present a framework for forecasting large fire occurrence – an extreme value event – and evaluating measures of uncertainties that do not rely on distributional assumptions. The statistical model presented here incorporates qualitative fire danger indices along with other location and seasonal specific explanatory variables to produce maps of forecasted probability of an ignition becoming a large fire, as well as numbers of large fires with measures of uncertainties. As an example, 6 years of fire occurrence data from the Western US were used to study the utility of two fire danger indices: the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook issued by Predictive Services in the US and the National Fire Danger Rating’s Energy Release Component. This exercise highlights the potential utility of the quantitative risk index as a real-time decision support tool that can enhance managers’ abilities to discriminate among planning areas in terms of the likelihood and range of expected significant fire events.
View article.
Resource managers often need scientific information to match their decisions (typically short-term and local) to complex, long-term, large-scale challenges such as adaptation to climate change. In such situations, the most reliable route to actionable science is coproduction, whereby managers, policy makers, scientists, and other stakeholders first identify specific decisions to be informed by science, and then jointly define the scope and context of the problem, research questions, methods, and outputs, make scientific inferences, and develop strategies for the appropriate use of science. This study presents seven recommended practices intended to help scientists, managers, funders and other stakeholders carry out a coproduction project, one recommended practice to ensure that partners learn from attempts at coproduction, and two practices to promote coproduction at a programmatic level.
View report.
This study investigated the effects of mastication and hand-thinning treatments in piñon-juniper (PJ) woodlands on ecological processes including fire, and on a wide range of species, particularly vulnerable PJ obligate birds. Treatments drove major, persistent ecological shifts relative to controls. Tree cover and canopy fuels were reduced; concomitantly, down woody surface fuels, forb, and grass cover increased. Treatments exhibited rapid, large, and persistent increases in the frequency, richness, and cover of 20 non-native plant species including cheatgrass. Treatments substantially reduced the occupancy of piñon-juniper specialist and conifer obligate bird species.
View book.
This book adds to current knowledge about the regional status of the sagebrush ecosystem, the distribution of habitats, the threats to the ecosystem, and the influence of threats and habitat conditions on occurrence and abundance of sagebrush associated fauna and flora in the Wyoming Basins. As federal management agencies move toward management at regional scales through efforts such as U.S. Bureau of Land Management Rapid Ecoregional Assessments and U.S. Department of Interior Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, our ecoregional assessment approach and results for the Wyoming Basins can further advance a cohesive approach to management of the sagebrush ecosystem.
View article.
This study evaluates the implications of ten twenty-first century climate scenarios for snow, soil moisture, and fuel moisture across the conterminous western USA. A decline in mountain snowpack, an advance in the timing of spring melt, and a reduction in snow season are projected for five mountain ranges in the region. The accelerated depletion of mountain snowpack due to warming leads to reduced summer soil moisture across mountain environments. Similarly, warmer and drier summers lead to decreases of up to 25% in dead fuel moisture across all mountain ranges. Collective declines in spring mountain snowpack, summer soil moisture, and fuel moisture across western mountain ranges will increase fire potential in flammability-limited forested systems where fuels are not limiting.
View analysis.
This meta-analysis was conducted to determine if there were consistent responses of understory vegetation to fire and thinning treatments in North American forests that historically experienced frequent surface fire regimes (<20 year fire-return interval, FRI). The most consistent effect of the treatments was the increase in non-native species following mechanical thinning and reduction in shrub cover following a burn. These differences suggest the two treatments may not be surrogates in the short-term (less than 5 years). Prescribed fire and thinning treatments can be used successfully to restore understory species richness and cover, but they can create different conditions and these potentially different outcomes need to be considered in the planning of a fuels reduction treatment.
View article.
This study investigated effects of fall grazing, spring grazing and not grazing on fuel characteristics, fire ignition and initial spread during the wildfire season (July and August) at five shrub steppe sites in Oregon, USA. Both grazing treatments decreased fine fuel biomass, cover and height, and increased fuel moisture, and thereby decreased ignition and initial spread compared with the ungrazed treatment. However, the probability of initial spread was 6-fold greater in the fall-grazed compared with the spring-grazed treatment in August. This suggests that spring grazing may have a greater effect on fires than fall grazing, likely because fall grazing does not influence the current year’s plant growth.
View article.
This study compared spring and fall prescribed fires at three sites (native-dominated, Bromus tectorum-dominated, and Juniperus occidentalis-dominated). There were higher plant survival rates following fall fires and native-dominated sites than in spring burns or where exotics dominated. These results show that burn season and prefire condition are important considerations when evaluating management alternatives in Artemisia tridentata ssp. vaseyana ecosystems.
View article.
This study analyzed existing permanent monitoring plot data collected between 1995 and 2010 to assess achievement of management objectives related to prescribed fire in ponderosa pine forests. Following first entry fire, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) and Gambel oak (Quercus gambelii) overstory and midstory densities declined between 10% and 45% and effectively shifted the Gambel oak diameter distribution toward larger trees. Second entry fires had a greater effect, reducing ponderosa pine and Gambel oak overstory and midstory densities between 24% and 92%. Diameter distributions of both species shifted toward fewer, larger trees following second entry fires. Total fuel load was reduced by <20% in first entry fires and by half in second entry fires. Several objectives identified by the National Park Service (e.g., overstory ponderosa pine reduction) were not achieved with either fire entry; however, power analysis indicated that sample sizes were not adequate to fully detect long term changes following first entry fires.
View article.
In this study, researchers examined nitrogen cycling rates in sagebrush and cheatgrass-invaded soils over a 100 mile range in the northern Great Basin, adding antibiotics to study the roles that soil fungi and bacteria play in nitrogen transformations. Results point to the important role fungi play in nitrogen dynamics in native sagebrush steppe and suggest that cheatgrass’s alteration of the microbial community may make nitrogen more available further benefiting the establishment and growth of this invasive grass.