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Webinar recording.
During this peer learning session, speakers will:
- Build understanding about the spectrum of complementary actions, based on available science, to protect the built environment and community values from wildfire, improve the ecological resilience of our landscapes, and improve the safety and effectiveness of wildfire management;
- Discuss the concepts of landscape resilience, the wildland urban interface and the home ignition zone, fire management options, and the roles they play in reducing fire risk;
- Address why fire needs to be restored to the landscape;
- Consider the values that could be lost and how they relate to fire; and
- Discuss how to increase the options for fire managers to implement integrated active management.
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This study sampled cheatgrass endophytes and found many fire-associated fungi, including Morchella in three western states (New Mexico, Idaho, and Washington). In greenhouse experiments, a New Mexico isolate of Morchella increased both the biomass and fecundity of its local cheatgrass population, thus simultaneously increasing both the probability of fire and survival of that event, via more fuel and a greater, belowground seed bank, respectively.
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This report evaluated how changes in climate in the United States would lead to changes by the middle and the end of the current century in annual spending to suppress wildfires on USDA Forest Service (FS) and Department of the Interior (DOI) managed lands.
To do this, researchers developed a two-stage model. In the first stage, we analyzed the historical relationships between area burned on FS and DOI lands and maximum daily temperatures and other variables. In the second stage, we analyzed historical relationships between area burned and suppression spending.
Then, using projections of climate obtained from general circulation models, we projected area burned, and used this projection in our second stage model to project spending on suppression. All spending projections were done with constant 2014 dollars. We made projections for mid-century (2041-2059) and late-century (2081-2099). Uncertainty in the area burned and suppression spending was quantified using Monte Carlo simulation methods, incorporating parametric uncertainty from the two stage models and climate uncertainty from the alternative climate projections.
Results show that median area burned on DOI lands is projected to increase, compared to the amount observed between 1995 and 2013, by 99% by mid-century and by 189% by late-century. For FS lands, the increases are projected to be 123% by mid-century and 221%, respectively. Given such changes in area burned, DOI spending is projected to increase by 45% by mid-century and by 72% by late-century. For the FS, annual spending is projected to rise by 117% and 192%, respectively. Such changes would entail an increase in dollars spent in total across both agencies from a historical average of $1.33 billion to a projected $2.63 billion in mid-century and $3.47 billion by late-century.
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In 1998, the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) was statutorily authorized as a joint partnership between the U.S. Department of the Interior and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest
Service. The program provides leadership to the wildland fire science community by identifying high-priority fire science research needs that will enhance the decisionmaking ability of
managers to meet their objectives. This publication celebrates and describes the JFSP’s contributions to and impact on the wildland fire community over the past 20 years.
Webinar recording.
In an effort to address key capability gaps, the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) has established a Wildland Fire Program focused on impactful service delivery. NESDIS Wildland Fire Program projects, aimed at addressing critical active fire capability gaps, are underway, with product and service demonstrations expected to begin by July 2023. The improved products are generated using the Next Generation Fire System (NGFS), which consists of a sensor agnostic (applicable to geostationary or low earth orbit satellites) active fire algorithm and higher order capabilities, including alerting, incident situational awareness tools that are highly tolerant of cloud cover, and an event-based data model that combines time-resolved satellite fire detections with complementary geospatial data layers. Terrain corrected GOES-R ABI imagery and fire detections have also been developed. In addition, a lightning prediction model, customized for incident management, is under development. With Alaska wildland fire applications in mind, this presentation will introduce the NESDIS Wildland Fire Program, highlight product development and demonstration activities, and facilitate continued dialogue with stakeholders.
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With remotely-sensed (Landsat) estimates of vegetation cover collected every 2–5 years from southwestern Wyoming, USA, over nearly three decades (1985–2015), we modeled changes in sagebrush cover on 375 former oil and gas well pads in response to weather and site-level conditions. We then used modeled relationships to predict recovery time across the landscape as an indicator of resilience for vegetation after well pad disturbances, where faster recovery indicates a greater capacity to recover when similarly disturbed. We found the rate of change in sagebrush cover generally increased with moisture and temperature, particularly at higher elevations. Rate of change in sagebrush cover also increased and decreased with greater percent sand and larger well pads, respectively. We predicted 21% of the landscape would recover to pre-disturbance conditions within 60 years, whereas other areas may require >100 years for recovery. These predictions and maps could inform future restoration efforts as they reflect resilience. This approach also is applicable to other disturbance types (e.g., fires and vegetation removal treatments) across landscapes, which can further improve conservation efforts by characterizing past conditions and monitoring trends in subsequent years.
Fuel, Fire and Smoke: Evolving to Meet Our Climate Challenge
Wildfires present an increasing challenge to humanity and the ecosystems and atmosphere we depend on. The ability of societies to respond to larger and more destructive wildfire events and mitigate against further climate impacts is also increasingly challenged. As our climate changes, and the effects are experienced in unique ways across diverse settings and societies, understanding fire behavior and human responses to this is even more critical.
The 7th International Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference offers a forum where past Fire Management experience and lessons learned are documented, current work showcased, and emerging research, innovation and techniques on fire management shared, towards developing integrated solutions to these challenges.
This conference on three continents provides an opportunity to showcase how different countries can implement newly developed fire management policies and frameworks at national, regional and local levels to address fire risks and build resilience. The Conference will unite policy makers, scientists, fire managers and Indigenous land stewards for a shared purpose and a different future living with fire.
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Sage grouse are the ‘canary in the coal mine’ that herald how this vital ecosystem is faring. These birds rely entirely on sagebrush-dominated landscapes: it’s their primary food source, their breeding grounds, their chick-rearing sites, their safe zones from hungry predators.
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Though widely distributed throughout the study region, ventenata only appeared in 45% of the 225 plots, and foliar cover was typically less than 50%. It was primarily found in ephemerally wet microhabitats. Species richness and the Shannon diversity index were lowest in plots with high V. dubia cover. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling analysis revealed that ventenata and medusahead were closely associated. Furthermore, chi-square indicator analysis showed that T. caput-medusae was more prevalent, while mountain big sagebrush was less prevalent, in plots containing ventenata. Abiotic factors that explained variation in ventenata abundance included rock cover, soil depth, and a north/south aspect. Higher ventenata cover also correlated with higher clay content and lower phosphorus and potassium concentrations in the soil. We suggest that at this point, detection survey efforts to locate incipient infestations of ventenata in sagebrush steppe communities should focus on moist areas and sites susceptible to invasion by medusahead.
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Overall, scientists more engaged with SWFSC reported involvement in a wider variety of knowledge coproduction activities. However, some knowledge coproduction activities, especially those requiring greater time investment or facing institutional barriers (e.g., research collaboration) were less common among all participants. Most scientists involved in knowledge coproduction believed that SWFSC increased their participation in these activities outside the boundary organization context, in part because SWFSC provided opportunities to interact with and understand the needs of managers/practitioners, as well as build research collaborations. Findings indicate that boundary organizations, such as SWFSC, can foster knowledge coproduction, but that they may need to further explore ways to address challenges for knowledge coproduction activities that involve greater time commitment or institutional challenges.