Decision Support
Webinar recording (43:56)
Join the LANDFIRE Office Hour as Nicole Vaillant (Fire Management Specialist, RMRS, Fire Lab, Wildland Fire Management RD&A) discusses how conducting a Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessment (QWRA) can enhance land management by evaluating wildfire risk and benefits across a landscape. This information can help plan fuel treatments, suppression responses, and fire effects monitoring. QWRA uses LANDFIRE data to model fire behavior, including fire likelihood, intensity, and impacts efficiently. The Interagency Fuel Treatment Decision Support System (IFTDSS) includes a workflow to make the QWRA process manageable and time efficient.
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Presenter: Sam Amato, Fire Application Specialist, Forest Service, Wildland Fire Management RD&A
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We developed species distribution models with dryland-focused predictors to project environmental suitability changes across the entirety of three pinyon and six juniper species ranges. We identify areas of robust suitability change by combining suitability projections from multiple emissions scenarios and time periods. PJ species’ suitabilities respond to many temperature and moisture covariates expected to change in the future. Projected responses among PJ species are highly variable, ranging from modest declines with concurrent gains for overall little net change to wide-ranging declines with no gains for overall range contractions. Environmental suitability is projected to decline broadly across the arid United States Southwest and remain relatively stable across the northern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau. Our results suggest unique responses of PJ species to future climate change. We found that species were projected to experience more losses than gains in suitability, for overall range shrinks rather than shifts. Land managers have the capacity to increase woodland resilience to drought, and our results can inform rangeland-wide management planning and conservation efforts in PJ woodlands.
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Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services.
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Livestock grazing is a common use of rangelands that can be managed to support rangeland health, including the wide array of ecosystem services that benefit society from public lands and private lands. This requires careful allocation of naturally occurring forage on large landscapes for both domestic and wild herbivores. Managers know grazing can sustain rangeland health as long as they time it right and balance the duration, frequency, and intensity of the grazing. However, forage production on a single area or landscape varies significantly from year to year, which, until recently, has limited the accuracy of data available to managers when they make decisions about grazing.
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This qualitative case study evaluates manager and researcher perceptions of the impact of a place-based, collaborative knowledge co-development process and examines the outcomes of that co-development for changes to management approaches. The USDA Forest Service (Forest Service) Rocky Mountain Research Station General Technical Report 373 (GTR-373) is a codeveloped science synthesis that functions as a boundary object providing a framework for planning, designing, and implementing management action for restoration of ponderosa and dry mixed-conifer forests. The process of creating and socializing the GTR-373 framework fostered continual knowledge exchange and engagement between researchers and managers across different organizations and levels of decision-making. This built trust in the information, improved justification for management action, developed a common foundation for cross-boundary implementation, and increased communication. The framework has been applied across jurisdictions and has been used as a foundational tool for training staff and designing projects. However, adapting the GTR-373 framework across scales remains challenging.
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In response to this event, Rocky Mountain Research Station’s (RMRS) fire management specialist Brad Pietruszka and colleagues wanted to understand how often fires like the Tamarack Fire occur, the driving factors behind the initial decisions in those fires, and, in turn, how they may feed the “let burn” misperception. With perspective as a fire manager, Pietruszka suspected a communication failure; and as a researcher, he turned to empirical research to investigate this question. “We wanted to see how often this type of outcome has occurred to understand what may be informing the ‘let burn’ dialogue,” Pietruszka says.
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Wildland fire incident commanders make wildfire response decisions within an increasingly complex socioenvironmental context. Threats to human safety and property, along with public pressures and agency cultures, often lead commanders to emphasize full suppression. However, commanders may use less-than-full suppression to enhance responder safety, reduce firefighting costs, and encourage beneficial effects of fire. This study asks: what management, socioeconomic, environmental, and fire behavior characteristics are associated with full suppression and the less-than-full suppression methods of point-zone protection, confinement/ containment, and maintain/monitor? We analyzed incident report data from 374 wildfires in the United States northern Rocky Mountains between 2008 and 2013. Regression models showed that full suppression was most strongly associated with higher housing density and earlier dates in the calendar year, along with non-federal land jurisdiction, regional and national incident management teams, human-caused ignitions, low fire-growth potential, and greater fire size. Interviews with commanders provided decision-making context for these regression results. Future efforts to encourage less-than-full suppression should address the complex management context, in addition to the biophysical context, of fire response.
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To contextualize decision factors within the decision making process, we offer a Wildfire Decision Framework that has value for policy makers seeking to improve decision making, managers improving their process and wildfire social science researchers.
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Potential Operational Delineations (PODs) a strategic collaborative spatial wildfire planning framework and decision support tool for wildfire response and mitigation. Background, primer, and use of sections included.