Decision Support
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We found that relative to their total forest area, California, New Mexico, and Arizona contained the greatest proportion of carbon highly vulnerable to wildfire-caused loss. We also observed widespread opportunities in the western US for using proactive forest management to reduce the risk of wildfire-caused carbon loss, with many areas containing opportunities for simultaneously mitigating the greatest risk from wildfire to carbon and human communities. Finally, we highlighted collaborative and equitable processes that provide pathways to achieving timely climate- and wildfire-mitigation goals at opportunity hot spots.
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We used the National Environmental Policy Act to identify four types of science information needed for making decisions relevant to public lands: (1) data on resources of concern, (2) scientific studies relevant to potential effects of proposed actions, (3) methods for quantifying potential effects of proposed actions, and (4) effective mitigation measures. We then used this framework to analyze 70 Environmental Assessments completed by the Bureau of Land Management in Colorado. Commonly proposed actions were oil and gas development, livestock grazing, land transactions, and recreation. Commonly analyzed resources included terrestrial wildlife, protected birds, vegetation, and soils. Focusing research efforts on the intersection of these resources and actions, and on developing and evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation measures to protect these resources, could strengthen the science foundation for public lands decision making.
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Management prioritized for a single species (Brewer’s Sparrow) provided the greatest per-unit-effort benefits for that species but resulted in the lowest population outcomes for all other species considered. In comparison, prioritizations for multiple species within a single ecosystem (i.e., pinyon–juniper or sagebrush) resulted in larger population benefits for species associated with that ecosystem and reduced detrimental effects on non-target species associated with another ecosystem. For example, single species management for Brewer’s Sparrow resulted in an average increase of 1.38% for sagebrush-associated species and a 4.58% decrease for pinyon–juniper associated species. In contrast, when managing for multiple sagebrush-associated species sagebrush-associated songbird populations increased by 3.98% and pinyon–juniper associated species decreased by 2.36%, on average.
Webinar recording.
In an effort to address key capability gaps, the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) has established a Wildland Fire Program focused on impactful service delivery. NESDIS Wildland Fire Program projects, aimed at addressing critical active fire capability gaps, are underway, with product and service demonstrations expected to begin by July 2023. The improved products are generated using the Next Generation Fire System (NGFS), which consists of a sensor agnostic (applicable to geostationary or low earth orbit satellites) active fire algorithm and higher order capabilities, including alerting, incident situational awareness tools that are highly tolerant of cloud cover, and an event-based data model that combines time-resolved satellite fire detections with complementary geospatial data layers. Terrain corrected GOES-R ABI imagery and fire detections have also been developed. In addition, a lightning prediction model, customized for incident management, is under development. With Alaska wildland fire applications in mind, this presentation will introduce the NESDIS Wildland Fire Program, highlight product development and demonstration activities, and facilitate continued dialogue with stakeholders.
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Our systematic review returned a sample of 222 publications that met these criteria, with an increase in wilderness fire science over time. Studies largely occurred in the USA and were concentrated in a relatively small number of protected areas, particularly in the Northern Rocky Mountains. As a result, this sample of wilderness fire science is highly skewed toward areas of temperate mixed-conifer forests and historical mixed-severity fire regimes. Common principal subjects of publications included fire effects (44%), wilderness fire management (18%), or fire regimes (17%), and studies tended to focus on vegetation, disturbance, or wilderness management as response variables.
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Users indicated that the program is viewed as efficient for sharing information about wildfires and documenting management decision rationale. They identified emerging gaps in technical proficiency and the need for specialised training that creates high-level users to help guide teams using the program.
Webinar recordings.
Monday, May 15, SCIENCE x Planning for Forests of the Future: Resources Planning Act – Forest Resources and Disturbance
• RPA Overview, presented by Claire O’Dea (recorded session)
• Forest Resources, Current and Future, presented by John Coulston
• Recent and future trends in disturbances to forests and rangelands across the conterminous U.S., presented by Jennifer Costanza
Tuesday, May 16, SCIENCE x Planning for Forests of the Future: Resources Planning Act – Forest Products and Water Resources
• RPA Overview, presented by Claire O’Dea (recorded session)
• Forest Products Markets, presented by Jeff Prestemon
• Current and future projections of water use and supply in the United States, presented by Travis Warziniack
Wednesday, May 17 SCIENCE x Planning for Forests of the Future: Resources Planning Act – Rangeland Resources and Biodiversity
• RPA Overview, presented by Claire O’Dea (recorded session)
• The 2020 Rangeland Assessment, presented by Matt Reeves
• Patterns and threats to biological diversity across the United States: Focusing on land use and climate change, presented by Becky Flitcroft
Thursday, May 18 SCIENCE x Planning for Forests of the Future: Resources Planning Act – Land Resources and Outdoor Recreation
• RPA Overview, presented by Claire O’Dea (recorded session)
• The past and future of land resources: foundations for the 2020 RPA Assessment, presented by Kurt Riitters
• Outdoor recreation participation in in the U.S. in 2040 and 2070, presented by Eric White
Friday, May 19 SCIENCE x Planning for Forests of the Future: National Report on Sustainable Forests
• USDA Forest Service National Reporting on Forest Sustainability: Observations and Program Overview, presented by Guy Robertson
• Key Findings from the 2020 National Report on Sustainable Forests, presented by Lara Murray
• The Montréal Process: a voluntary international agreement to measure, monitor and make progress on forest conservation and sustainable management, presented by Kathleen McGinley
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This study presents the results of thematic analysis from 46 semi-structured interviews with employees in the US Forest Service Southwestern Region with a WFDSS user account. Users indicated that the program is viewed as efficient for sharing information about wildfires and documenting management decision rationale. They identified emerging gaps in technical proficiency and the need for specialized training that creates high-level users to help guide teams using the program.
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Based on the existing literature, significant policy, regulatory, physical, and social barriers impede the use of managed wildfire. For fire managers, use of this strategy requires a complex decision-making process that includes consideration of institutional influences, operational considerations, fire outcomes, fire environment, perceived risk, and sociopolitical context. Some new treatment and response planning tools, such as Potential Operational Delineations (PODs), may facilitate greater use by easing some of these barriers and concerns. The scale of the wildfire challenge across the country suggests that, in the future, managed wildfire will play an essential role in managing fuels, reducing burn severity, enhancing suppression effectiveness, fostering forest resilience, and improving human’s ability to coexist with fire.
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Users indicated that the program is viewed as efficient for sharing information about wildfires and documenting management decision rationale. They identified emerging gaps in technical proficiency and the need for specialised training that creates high-level users to help guide teams using the program.