Decision Support
View brief.
Reducing PODs (potential operational delineations) to a network of suppression-focused fuel breaks may dilute the intent and diminish the richness of the framework. Using PODs and fuel breaks to perpetuate fire exclusion is not likely to be effective and may set us up for failure. In many forest types, we may need to rethink design of fuel breaks along POD boundaries to support expansion of proactive use of fire.
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Mapped representations of species−habitat relationships often underlie approaches to prioritize area-based conservation strategies to meet conservation goals for biodiversity. Generally a single surrogate species is used to inform conservation design, with the assumption that conservation actions for an appropriately selected species will confer benefits to a broader community of organisms. Emerging conservation frameworks across western North America are now relying on derived measures of intactness from remotely sensed vegetation data, wholly independent from species data. Understanding the efficacy of species-agnostic planning approaches is a critical step to ensuring the robustness of emerging conservation designs. We developed an approach to quantify ‘strength of surrogacy’, by applying prioritization algorithms to previously developed species models, and measuring their coverage provided to a broader wildlife community. We used this inference to test the relative surrogacy among a suite of species models used for conservation targeting in the endangered grasslands of the Northern Sagebrush Steppe, where careful planning can help stem the loss of private grazing lands to cultivation. In this test, we also derived a simpler surrogate of intact rangelands without species data for conservation targeting, along with a measure of combined migration representative of key areas for connectivity. Our measure of intactness vastly outperformed any species model as a surrogate for conservation, followed by that of combined migration, highlighting the efficacy of strategies that target large and intact rangeland cores for wildlife conservation and restoration efforts.
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The sagebrush biome is a dryland region in the western United States experiencing rapid transformations to novel ecological states. Threat-based approaches for managing anthropogenic and ecosystem threats have recently become prominent, but successfully mitigating threats depends on the ecological resilience of ecosystems. We used a spatially explicit approach for prioritizing management actions that combined a threat-based model with models of resilience to disturbance and resistance to annual grass invasion. The threat-based model assessed geographic patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI) to identify core sagebrush, growth opportunity, and other rangeland areas. The resilience and resistance model identified ecologically relevant climate and soil water availability indicators from process-based ecohydrological models. The SEI areas and resilience and resistance indicators were consistent – the resilience and resistance indicators showed generally positive relationships with the SEI areas. They also were complementary – SEI areas provided information on intact sagebrush areas and threats, while resilience and resistance provided information on responses to disturbances and management actions. The SEI index and resilience and resistance indicators provide the basis for prioritizing conservation and restoration actions and determining appropriate strategies. The difficulty and time required to conserve or restore SEI areas increase as threats increases and resilience and resistance decrease.
Webinar b.
Presenters will share an overall framework, analysis considerations plus a case study from the Southwest Idaho Wildfire Crisis Landscape. Manager questions and experiences to guide this session are encouraged.
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This study used geospatial seed transfer zones as our focal management areas. We broadly considered generalized provisional seed transfer zones, created using climate and stratified by ecoregion, but also present results for empirical seed transfer zones, based on species‐specific research, as part of our case study. Historic fire occurrence was effective for prioritizing seed transfer zones: 23 of 132 provisional seed transfer zones burned every year, and, within each ecoregion, two provisional seed transfer zones comprised ≧50% of the total area burned across all years. Fire occurrence within PACs largely reflected the seed transfer zone priorities found for the ecoregion as a whole. Our results demonstrate that historic disturbance can be used to identify regions that encounter regular or large disturbance. This information can then be used to guide seed production, purchase, and storage, create more certainty for growers and managers, and ultimately increase restoration success.
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We used the National Environmental Policy Act to identify four types of science information needed for making decisions relevant to public lands: (1) data on resources of concern, (2) scientific studies relevant to potential effects of proposed actions, (3) methods for quantifying potential effects of proposed actions, and (4) effective mitigation measures. We then used this framework to analyze 70 Environmental Assessments completed by the Bureau of Land Management in Colorado. Commonly proposed actions were oil and gas development, livestock grazing, land transactions, and recreation. Commonly analyzed resources included terrestrial wildlife, protected birds, vegetation, and soils. Focusing research efforts on the intersection of these resources and actions, and on developing and evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation measures to protect these resources, could strengthen the science foundation for public lands decision making.
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Management prioritized for a single species (Brewer’s Sparrow) provided the greatest per-unit-effort benefits for that species but resulted in the lowest population outcomes for all other species considered. In comparison, prioritizations for multiple species within a single ecosystem (i.e., pinyon–juniper or sagebrush) resulted in larger population benefits for species associated with that ecosystem and reduced detrimental effects on non-target species associated with another ecosystem. For example, single species management for Brewer’s Sparrow resulted in an average increase of 1.38% for sagebrush-associated species and a 4.58% decrease for pinyon–juniper associated species. In contrast, when managing for multiple sagebrush-associated species sagebrush-associated songbird populations increased by 3.98% and pinyon–juniper associated species decreased by 2.36%, on average.
Webinar recording.
In an effort to address key capability gaps, the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) has established a Wildland Fire Program focused on impactful service delivery. NESDIS Wildland Fire Program projects, aimed at addressing critical active fire capability gaps, are underway, with product and service demonstrations expected to begin by July 2023. The improved products are generated using the Next Generation Fire System (NGFS), which consists of a sensor agnostic (applicable to geostationary or low earth orbit satellites) active fire algorithm and higher order capabilities, including alerting, incident situational awareness tools that are highly tolerant of cloud cover, and an event-based data model that combines time-resolved satellite fire detections with complementary geospatial data layers. Terrain corrected GOES-R ABI imagery and fire detections have also been developed. In addition, a lightning prediction model, customized for incident management, is under development. With Alaska wildland fire applications in mind, this presentation will introduce the NESDIS Wildland Fire Program, highlight product development and demonstration activities, and facilitate continued dialogue with stakeholders.
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Our systematic review returned a sample of 222 publications that met these criteria, with an increase in wilderness fire science over time. Studies largely occurred in the USA and were concentrated in a relatively small number of protected areas, particularly in the Northern Rocky Mountains. As a result, this sample of wilderness fire science is highly skewed toward areas of temperate mixed-conifer forests and historical mixed-severity fire regimes. Common principal subjects of publications included fire effects (44%), wilderness fire management (18%), or fire regimes (17%), and studies tended to focus on vegetation, disturbance, or wilderness management as response variables.
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Users indicated that the program is viewed as efficient for sharing information about wildfires and documenting management decision rationale. They identified emerging gaps in technical proficiency and the need for specialised training that creates high-level users to help guide teams using the program.