Post-fire Environment & Management
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Approximately 75% of models tested had acceptable, excellent, or outstanding predictive ability. The models that performed poorly were primarily models predicting stem mortality of angiosperms or tree mortality of thin-barked conifers. This suggests that different approaches—such as different model forms, better estimates of bark thickness, and additional predictors—may be warranted for these taxa. Future data collection and research should target the geographical and taxonomic data gaps and poorly performing models identified in this study. Our evaluation of post-fire tree mortality models is the most comprehensive effort to date and allows users to have a clear understanding of the expected accuracy in predicting tree death from fire for 44 species.
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This study’s objective was to determine whether remnant/unburned sagebrush patches contribute to sagebrush recovery in surrounding burned areas surrounding them.
Key Findings:
While conventional wisdom is that sagebrush seeds remain close to the mother plant, we found that a measurable percentage of seeds travel up to tens of meters. Remnant patches of sagebrush after fire could contribute to natural regeneration in surrounding landscapes. However, seed arrival was highly variable between sites and work remains to be done to predict where natural regeneration will be sufficient to rehabilitate sagebrush steppe after wildfire.
Description: Landscapes of the Inland West are deeply affected by 100+ years of fire exclusion, the loss of indigenous burning, and expansion and densification of many forests. Today, anthropogenic climate change and wildfires are modifying the structure and composition of forests across the West at rates that far exceed adaptation and restorative treatments. Fires that occur during the forest planning process can delay project implementation for years, further hindering the pace of restoration activities. Landscape evaluations and prescriptions are needed so that managers can assess the work of wildfires on affected landscapes; the topic of this webinar.
Presenters and research team: Andrew Larson, C. Alina Cansler, Derek Churchill, Paul Hessburg Sr., Sean Jeronimo, Van Kane, Jim Lutz, and Nicholas Povak.
This wildfire recovery graphic and facilitator’s guide were developed by FAC Net practitioners to address the diversity of community and landscape needs after wildfire and to provide a common framework for post-fire discussions. The graphic, by practitioners and for practitioners, integrates experiential knowledge from diverse communities, ecosystems, and perspectives.
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Shifts from longer seasonal snowpacks to shorter, ephemeral snowpacks (snowpacks that persist for <60 days) due to climate change will alter the timing and rates of water availability. Ephemeral snowmelt has less predictable timing and lowers soil water availability during the growing season. The Great Basin, United States is an ideal system to study snow ephemerality across a broad climate gradient. To identify the climatic controls on snow ephemerality, we analysed moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow‐covered products from water years 2001–2015 using an object‐based mapping approach and a random forest model. Winter temperature and precipitation were the most influential variables on the maximum snow duration. We predict that warming the average winter air temperature by 2 and 4°C would reduce the areal extent of seasonal snow by 14.7 and 47.8%, respectively (8.8% of the Great Basin’s areal extent is seasonal in the historical record), with shifts to ephemeral snowpack concentrated in lower elevations and warmer regions. The combination of warming and interannual precipitation variability (i.e., reductions of 25%) had different effects on vegetation types. Vegetation types that have had consistent seasonal snow cover in their historical record are likely to have lower resilience to a new hydrologic regime, with earlier and more intermittent snowmelt causing a longer but drier growing season. Implications of increased snow ephemerality on vegetation productivity and susceptibility to disturbance will depend on local topography, subsurface water storage, and physiological adaptations. Nevertheless, patterns found in this study can help target management intervention to species that are most at risk.
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In coniferous western forests, recent widespread tree mortality provided opportunities to test the long-held theory that forest cover loss increases water yield. We reviewed 78 studies of hydrologic response to standing-replacing (severe wildfire, harvest) or nonstand-replacing (drought, insects, low-severity wildfire) disturbances, and reassessed the question: Does water yield or snowpack increase after forest disturbance? Collective results indicate that postdisturbance streamflow and snowpack may increase, not change, or even decrease, and illuminate factors that may help improve predictability of hydrologic response to disturbance. Contrary to the expectation that tree mortality reduces evapotranspiration, making more water available as runoff, postdisturbance evapotranspiration sometimes increased—particularly following nonstand-replacing disturbance—
because of (a) increased evaporation resulting from higher subcanopy radiation, and (b) increased transpiration resulting from rapid postdisturbance growth. Postdisturbance hydrologic response depends on vegetation structure, climate, and topography, and new hypotheses continue to be formulated and tested in this rapidly evolving discipline.
Webinar recording.
Description: Among the values at risk from wildfire are community drinking water supplies, as forested watersheds on public land are often a primary or significant source of drinking water. In some places across the West, watershed protection partnerships have formed to address this threat by bringing together the stakeholders of these watersheds for collaborative planning and investment in source water protection. This webinar will explore the concept of watershed protection partnerships and how they span organizational boundaries for collective action to address wildfire and other risks. We will offer lessons learned from how these partnerships have been implemented in Colorado and New Mexico, and direct implications and applications for communities in Oregon.
Presenters: Heidi Huber-Stearns, University of Oregon; Emily Jane Davis, Oregon State University
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Our findings are consistent with other studies in showing that visitation losses do happen after wildfire but are short-lived and may differ between day and overnight users.· Although visitors were often saddened to see the burned landscape, their recreation experiences and satisfaction appeared largely unchanged.· Distributing up-to-date information about conditions at recreation destinations may be useful for potential visitors concerned about smoke and wildfire.· Recreationists substitute between recreation destinations or seasons to avid wildfire or smoke. Managers may do well to prepare for receiving visitors displaced by wildfire or smoke and having more visitors outside primary recreation seasons.
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Drawing from literature on natural hazard vulnerability, disaster recovery, and wildfire ecology, this paper proposes a linked social-ecological model of community recovery and adaptation after disaster. The model contends that changes during post-wildfire recovery shape a community’s vulnerability to the next wildfire event. While other studies have highlighted linked social-ecological dynamics that influence pre-fire vulnerability, few studies have explored social-ecological feedbacks in post-fire recovery. This model contributes to interdisciplinary social science research on wildfires and to scholarship on community recovery by integrating hazard vulnerability reduction with recovery in a cyclical framework. Furthermore, it is adaptable to a variety of hazards beyond wildfire. The model provides a basis for future empirical work examining the nature and effectiveness of recovery efforts aimed at long-term vulnerability reduction.
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Managers can use the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) when planning prescribed burns to achieve mortality-related objectives and for creating post-fire salvage guidelines to predict which trees will die soon after fire. Of the preceding observations, 13,460 involved trees that burned twice. Researchers evaluated the post-fire tree mortality models in FOFEM for 45 species. Approximately 75% of models tested in the FOFEM had either excellent or good predictive ability. Models performed best for thick-barked conifer species. Models tend to overpredict mortality for conifers with moderate bark thickness and underpredict mortality in primarily angiosperms or thin-barked conifers. Managers who rely on these models can use the results to (1) be aware of the uncertainty and biases in model predictions and (2) choose a threshold for assigning dead and live trees that optimizes certainty in either identifying or predicting live or dead individuals.