Research and Publications
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This report describes operational fire spread potential forecasts for the Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountain regions of the United States. We used satellite thermal detection data to estimate daily area burned from 547 wildfires that burned between 2012-2021. Using weather and soil moisture data corresponding to the day and location of each fire, we developed simple linear and logistic regression models estimating daily fire growth and potential for fire spread greater than 70 acres. These models are used to create daily prediction grids for the current date and for a 2-day forecast period for the Northwest U.S. These map outputs are publicly available and can be used by fire managers and predictive services staff to assess fire conditions to support strategic planning during the fire season.
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It may sound simple, but water doesn’t burn. Techniques for river and stream restoration, known as process-based restoration (PBR), store more water on the land, which can increase fire resilience and bolster fuel treatments. PBR applied in stream corridors, meadows, and valley bottoms can quickly and cost-effectively increase surface water and groundwater by utilizing non-merchantable timber and slash to raise water tables and increase soil moisture. Integration of watershed restoration during fire and fuels planning can strengthen suppression-control features such as Potential Operational Delineation (POD) boundaries while increasing ecological benefits (fig. 1). Intact wetland complexes and streams connected to their floodplains can better withstand wildfires, provide refuge from fire for fish, wildlife, and plants, then capture ash and sediment following wildfire.
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Increased wildfire activity in the US motivated the USDA Forest Service to update national wildfire simulation data used for risk assessment and prioritizing wildland fuel reduction programs. The update (FSim-2020 to FSim-2023) included revised data on fuels, ignition frequency, fire weather, and recalibration of the FSim model. We overlayed the new simulated fire perimeters with the most recent building footprint data to examine the change in magnitude and spatial patterns of estimated building exposure. We found that the update to FSim-2023 resulted in a 61% increase in simulated building exposure in the East, and a decline of −9% in the West compared to FSim-2020. Overall, Forest Service priorities for management investments at the 100,000-ha scale were consistent between the two simulations in the West, but less so for the East, with newer simulations suggesting that a substantially greater area would require treatments to address the same level of exposure. Fire return level analysis indicated that differences between the prior and newer simulated building exposure varied across predicted recurrence intervals and fire size. Changes in building exposure were related to increases in ignition frequency, burn probability and building counts. A potentially important finding was the overestimation of simulated building exposure compared with observed (+112% West, +790% East) for the same approximate time period. One probable cause for the overestimation was the resampling of the LANDFIRE 30 m to the FSim 270 m, which resulted in a substantial reclassification of non-burnable to burnable pixels, particularly in and around the urban interface. The study underscores the importance of continued federal investment in risk assessment technology and data to keep pace with the rapid growth in wildfire extent and severity under evolving wildfire management policy.
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“Actionable science” is a widely held standard for identifying the merits of natural resources research. Yet, science is often framed as actionable to a vaguely identified quintessential “manager” without defining either the intended manager or use. Generic descriptions lack precision for identifying end users or their needs, limiting methodological rigor in research design and leading to contextual misalignments of outputs with the need they intended to serve. Further, imprecise terminology limits the ability to evaluate impact, replicate efforts, or foster adoption and implementation of findings. This perspective article presents the heuristic of “who, what, when, where, why, how” to help researchers be more precise when describing their actionable science. Through intentional reflection, researchers can move beyond generic framings of “managers” representing monolithic organizations. “Managers” become individuals, with unique responsibilities, functions, worldviews, and levels of authority, all influencing their use of and need for scientific information and data.
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We evaluated how polymeric seed coatings influence the capacity of ruminants to degrade and disperse native grass seeds in semi-arid environments. Using an in situ ruminal incubation, seeds representing four perennial bunchgrass species—Indian ricegrass, crested wheatgrass, bottlebrush squirreltail, and bluebunch wheatgrass—were treated with either polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) matrix or a dual-layer formulation combining PVP with ethyl cellulose (Ethocel). Seeds were ruminally incubated (0, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 96 h). After removal, seeds were transferred to greenhouses for viability and germination assays for five weeks. Coating altered seed germination, with PVP and PVP + Ethocel reducing (P ≤ 0.05) germination at 0 h for most species except Indian ricegrass. Over time, polymer-coated seeds demonstrated improved resistance (P ≤ 0.05) to microbial and enzymatic breakdown relative to uncoated. Indian ricegrass showed an atypical response, maintaining or improving germination rates under PVP and control through extended rumen exposure. Fecal emergence was highest in PVP + Ethocel seeds (P ≤ 0.05), indicating enhanced protection through gastrointestinal passage. These findings show that polymer coatings influence seed degradation in the rumen and improve post-digestion viability and dispersal by grazing animals, a land management framework for seeds dispersal.
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Virtual fencing technology holds the potential to modernize and transform livestock management, with significant but still underexplored biodiversity conservation applications. The technology uses Global Positioning System-enabled collars on livestock and software-defined boundaries to provide a virtual alternative to traditional physical fencing, creating opportunities to remove or reduce physical fences. We identify four key functional attributes of virtual fencing that can be leveraged to achieve conservation goals: eliminating the barrier effects of physical fencing infrastructure that fragment landscapes, providing precise and temporally adaptable exclusion capabilities for protecting sensitive ecological areas, enabling targeted livestock concentration for invasive species control and predator conflict mitigation, and facilitating adaptive grazing rotations that promote habitat heterogeneity and vegetative health. Collectively, these functions address critical conservation challenges including restoration of landscape connectivity, protection of riparian habitat, maintaining wildlife corridors, and livestock-carnivore coexistence. Despite its promise as a conservation tool, adoption of virtual fencing still faces substantial barriers including technological limitations, learning curves for both operators and livestock, limited research on diverse livestock types, cost barriers, animal welfare concerns, data privacy issues, and the complexity of implementing virtual fencing specifically for conservation outcomes. Conservation organizations can accelerate virtual fencing deployment through strategic cost-sharing partnerships, incentive-based conservation agreements, and advocacy for supportive policy frameworks. Investment in interdisciplinary research will be essential for demonstrating effectiveness and addressing adoption barriers. Virtual fencing represents a transformative conservation tool with applications across diverse grazing contexts around the world and offers substantial opportunities to reconcile livestock production with biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration goals.
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We are losing an average of 1.3 M acres of functional rangelands each year in the sagebrush biome, largely driven by invasive annual grasses (IAGs). This document intends to empower rangeland managers and practitioners to explore treatment options by providing a broad overview of management strategies where rangelands are vulnerable to IAGs. The decision tree below walks through key questions with generalized, science-based information where available (e.g., % cover thresholds) to inform decisions, leading to management strategies with potential actions on the reverse side.
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Drier climate suppressed fire but its greater precipitation variability increased fire and avalanche frequency. Treatments decreased area burned at lower elevations where non-native annual fuels facilitated fires. Ecological departure (vegetation dissimilarity) from reference conditions was unchanged when lower elevation seedings included introduced species, but ecological departure decreased with native species seeding. Prescribed fire and increased avalanche frequency increased bighorn sheep habitat suitability.
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Pinyon-juniper woodlands, a prominent ecosystem in the southwest US, are undergoing significant ecosystem changes due to drought and fire. Concerns arise over lack of resilience, especially as this ecosystem experiences hotter and drier recovery conditions. To understand vegetation trajectories and to identify risk factors that may reduce tree seedling establishment, we examined three 25 + -year-old fires in western Colorado, USA, and compared plant community recovery and tree establishment patterns in unburned, interior burned, and edge burned plots. Assessment included piñon and juniper seedling recovery and their microsite conditions, and plot structure, including percent cover of understory plant functional groups and fuel loading. We found that in burned plots, tree regeneration was highest in edge plots compared to interior plots. Seedlings were more often found under nurse objects, with more seedlings present under Gambel oak and logs compared to other nurse types. Our models indicated that pinyon seedling presence was negatively associated with non-native plant cover and positively associated with the density of mature live pinyon trees. Juniper seedling presence was positively associated with density of mature live juniper trees, as well as 1-h and 10-h fuels. Our findings suggest that recovery to a woodland structure may be prolonged, especially in large burned patches with limited seed sources and areas with high colonization of non-native plants.
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Genotype-by-environment interactions increased the predictive accuracy of our statistical model of cheatgrass fitness with strong evidence for local adaptation to source climate. Survival responses to soil microclimate were density-dependent and there was stronger evidence for local adaptation at lower compared with higher planting density. Our model generally predicts increases in fitness with an increase in temperature across source populations. Important eco-evolutionary context (e.g. genotype-by-environment interactions, density dependence) should be considered when predicting plant fitness in an era of rapid environmental change.