Research and Publications
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Of all seedlings, 28% survived the first year after planting, and we found that microsite, topographic position, and elevation strongly impacted seedling survival. Survival probability increased with elevation. Seedlings planted under shrubs and grasses/forbs had much higher survival (35% and 40%, respectively) than those planted in open interspaces (10%). We identified an important interaction between canopy cover and topographic position, where the benefits of shade were most pronounced on ridgelines but diminished in valleys.
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This publication seeks to ground our readers in the foundations and applications of threat-based ecostate maps. We start with background on the conceptual approach and how ecostate maps were made, and then present best practices and key limitations to note when using ecostate maps. We then provide examples of applying ecostate maps effectively across scales for different management applications.
Ultimately, this publication seeks to:
• Raise awareness among land managers and practitioners in the sagebrush biome about how ecostate maps can help them understand and map ecosystem threats.
• Provide a peer-reviewed resource that can guide the use of ecostate maps in making land-management decisions.
• Foster big-picture thinking and wider adoption of landscape-scale maps, leading to increased confidence in using satellite data.
• Highlight the efficiencies of using ecostate maps, such as streamlining landscape assessment to maximize limited field time.
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Although previous studies have documented social inequalities in the distribution of wildfires and their adverse impacts, spatial statistical approaches have rarely been applied to examine social vulnerability to wildfire risk. We demonstrate how local indicators of spatial association (LISA) can be implemented to identify census tracts in the US where high wildfire risk and high social vulnerability intersect spatially and key characteristics of social vulnerability in these locations. Tracts are classified into relevant spatial clusters based on bivariate LISA to analyze the relationship between share of properties at risk of wildfire (2022) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s Social Vulnerability Index (2022), the ‘High–High’ cluster representing tracts at the intersection of high wildfire risk and high social vulnerability. High tracts are located mainly in western and southern states, and characterized by disproportionately higher percentages of American Indian and Hispanic individuals and mobile homes. Several socially vulnerable groups are significantly over-represented in areas vulnerable to wildfire risk and should be prioritized for further investigation and mitigation. Bivariate LISA can provide important place-based insights on the intersection of wildfire risk and social vulnerability, and inform spatially precise interventions that address both biophysical and social dimensions of wildfires.
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Rapid surveying provided nuanced, event-based insights into how households perceived individual prescribed fires, particularly related to air quality, risk, and access to information sources. We found that the success of these pilot efforts lay in co-production of survey content and administration with partners responsible for each prescribed fire, allowing administrative flexibility, additional social and planning context, and improved applicability of resultant recommendations. This article provides a template for other researcher-practitioner teams interested in developing social science research focused on rapid surveying, studying individual prescribed fires, or investigating other fire- or forest-related management activities internationally.
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Amid rising wildfire risk, western U.S. states face an urgent need to protect fire-exposed communities. With limited
time and money to act, they must go beyond fire suppression activities and implement proven mitigation measures
with verifiable outcomes.
This paper outlines a risk-based framework guiding states to focus their efforts where they are more likely to see
results: the built environment, particularly existing structures and surrounding vegetation, and electricity infrastructure.
The framework consists of six steps:
- Inventory the universe at risk.
- Establish metrics for quantifying risks and damages.
- Determine the key physical risks to mitigate and the appropriate actions needed to address each of them.
- Assess the cost of mitigations and potential funding sources.
- Secure stakeholder buy-in.
- Create an action plan prioritizing mitigation methods and targets.
State leaders are likely to face many obstacles when pursuing wildfire mitigation, including consumer resistance
to change, misconceptions about risk, and concerns about funding. This framework helps stakeholders anticipate
challenges and mobilize populations to adopt the necessary steps that will reduce wildfire risk, improve insurability,
and lead to sustainable communities.
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Our study demonstrates that invasive annual grasses are rapidly spreading across the study area regardless of prescribed fire. Low severity prescribed fire may not exacerbate the invasion of some annual grasses in forested areas and sagebrush patches where the canopy cover is already open. However, burning in sagebrush patches may have negative effects on important non-forest ecosystems when burning results in the loss of fire-sensitive species. This information can help aid decision making and improve species-specific management and treatment effectiveness in dry forest landscapes.
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Although the modern wildfire crisis is characterized by large, severe wildfires, historical fire regimes also included extensive fires. On an Arizona landscape, the sizes of several historical fires were on par with the largest wildfire on record. Similar historical precedent of large fires is likely true elsewhere in dry conifer forests of western North America. These findings underscore that future wildfire events could be even larger, and likely more severe, as fuels accumulate and the climate grows warmer and drier. Forest restoration aimed at reestablishing characteristic disturbance regimes, including frequent, large, low-severity fires, could be used to assist recovery of these ecosystems resulting from the cumulative fire deficit.
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Contemporary North American wildfires exhibit increasingly erratic intraday burning, posing immediate operational and socioeconomic challenges. Here, we show that climate-driven weakening of day-night (diurnal) weather constraints extends and intensifies burning hours, a key mechanism behind broader fire regime transformations. Analyzing hourly geostationary satellite observations for ~9000 fires (>200 hectares; 2017–2023), we found western mountains and boreal forests experienced the longest active burning hours, with approximately one-third of active days exceeding 12 hours. About 60% of fires reached peak intensity within 24 hours of detection, while 14% of active days peaked at night. On the basis of fire weather, annual potential burning hours were estimated to rise 36% over 1975–2024, with pronounced increases in western regions and spring/fall (48 to 57%). Regions with significant changes gained 26 more potential active days annually and 1.2 additional potential burning hours daily, while extreme days (≥12 or 24 potential burning hours) rose 81 to 233% in fire-prone biomes. Future management requires adaptation to wildfires that increasingly defy diurnal norms.
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Seeding across two years was beneficial as 2021–2022 was warm and dry (less growth) and 2022–2023 was cold and wet (more growth). The perennial seed mix of forbs, grasses, and shrubs used included nine
dryland species. The forbs were most successful, with the best results in the high seeding rate during the cold, wet year. Unexpectedly, the perennial shrubs and grasses hardly germinated. Researchers suspect
perhaps the commercially grown seeds were not adapted to the Reno climate, or there was not enough rainfall. Bethedging like this with high rates of annual seedling, that include different plant groups, and across multiple years, could be helpful for landscapes with unpredictable interannual weather patterns.
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Aspens impede fire spread
- The study found that, as the percentage of aspen cover increased in a burned patch, the daily area burned and maximum linear spread both decreased. This effect increased as the percentage of aspen cover increased. For example, when aspen cover within a daily burn patch was less than 10 percent, the mean burned patch size was 1112 ± 84 ha/day. However, when aspen cover exceeded 25 percent, the mean daily burned patch size averaged 368 ± 43 ha/day. The researchers found similar effects for linear spread.
- These effects remained consistent relative to other vegetation types regardless of weather or climate. So, while particularly dry or windy conditions cause all vegetation types to burn more, aspen stands still burn at a lower rate than conifer stands. Aspens influence fire perimeters
- Aspens were also disproportionally represented at the perimeters of fires—they were 44 percent more abundant in perimeters than burn interiors. While aspen stands will not stop a fire dead in its tracks,
this result indicates that they can alter fire perimeters and potentially help slow fire spread.