Research and Publications
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Significant and lasting soil carbon change in rangeland ecosystems requires ecological state change. Although within-ecological state, soil carbon dynamics can occur, they are driven primarily by short-term fluctuations in weather, specifically precipitation, and are insufficient to provide reliable estimates of change to support policy and management decisions. Changes in grazing management typically do not result in ecological state change, apart from the vegetation structural change associated with long-term overgrazing. Dominant vegetation attributes such as shrub-to-grass ratios, cool season versus warm season plant production, and annual versus perennial growth habit define ecological state and are detectable accurately and cost-effectively using existing remote-sensing technology. These vegetation attributes, along with stationary soil properties, allow for mapping at scales consistent with a variety of policy and management decisions and provide a logical basis for developing a credible sampling framework for verification. Furthermore, state-transition models of ecological state dynamics are designed to provide information that can be used to support inventories and management decisions for soil carbon and other ecosystem services.
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We continued to monitor streamflow and precipitation at an existing hydrologic monitoring network at the Grizzly Creek Fire, CO. Through analysis of this long-term dataset, managers may better plan for infrastructure impacts multiple years post-fire. Next, to evaluate the performance of existing post-fire decision criteria and assess potential improvements, we developed the Post-fire Decision Criteria Assessment Framework. We applied this framework to the Grizzly Creek Fire, CO (2020) and specifically evaluated the decision criteria for highway safety closures applied by the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) to Interstate (I-) 70 within Glenwood Canyon, CO between Dotsero and Glenwood Springs in the first three years post-fire (2021-2023). We defined the infrastructure impact (referred to as ‘impact’) as any instance where I-70 was closed by the Colorado Department of Transportation beyond the end of the precipitation event for maintenance or cleanup associated with flooding or sediment. We
identified a total of 20 safety closure decisions reported by CDOT over the study period and classified each decision into one of three performance categories: true positive (preemptive closure and impact occurred), false positive (preemptive closure and no impact occurred), and false negative (no preemptive closure but impact occurred, resulting in emergency closure). We found that the performance of the safety closure decision criteria varied over the study period in alignment with the Colorado Department of Transportation’s aim of protecting travelers’ safety while reducing unnecessary safety closures without impact. Decisions that resulted in compromised traveler safety or unnecessary closures were considered poor performance. We identified that precipitation-based metrics including precipitation event depth and short-term intensity (i.e. 15-minute) were significant indicators of impact to I-70. Soil moisture-based metrics may be a good secondary indicator but further analysis with a larger dataset is needed. This framework is applicable across burned watersheds and to other infrastructure impacts of interest, such as for water intake shutdown.
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Rural residents think of smoke as an acceptable risk. Efforts to adapt to potential health impacts are minimal, though inaction is driven by diverse reasoning and tradeoffs. Local social context particularly elements related to government distrust, forest management, and independence – heavily influences interest in uptake of different adaptation strategies as well as affecting access to, and interpretation of, information about smoke risks. Rural approaches to, and understandings of, smoke adaptation vary spatially and temporally. Public interest in broader forest management efforts can be leveraged to engage residents in conversations about proactive smoke adaptation. Implications. Smoke adaptation strategies in rural communities must meld evidence of their effectiveness with community preferences grounded in local context to overcome inaction.
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The National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG) Wildland Urban Interface Mitigation Field Guide, PMS 053 provides mitigation practitioners at all experience levels with recommendations on the most effective and efficient ways to accomplish mitigation work in communities at risk to wildfire damage or destruction. The content in this guide was written in coordination with the NWCG Standards for Mitigation in the Wildland Urban Interface, PMS 052.
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We present a mixed integer programming model for prioritizing fuel treatments within a landscape fuel break network to maximize protection against wildfires, measured by the total fire size reduction or the sum of Wildland Urban Interface areas avoided from burning. This model uses a large dataset of simulated wildfires in a large landscape to inform fuel break treatment decisions. Its mathematical formulation is concise and computationally efficient, allowing for customization and expansion to address more complex and challenging fuel break management problems in diverse landscapes. We constructed test cases for Southern California of the United States to understand model outcomes across a wide range of fire and fuel management scenarios. Results suggest optimal fuel treatment layouts within the Southern California’s fuel break network responding to various model assumptions, which offer insights for regional fuel break planning. Comparative tests between the proposed optimization model and a rule-based simulation approach indicate that the optimization model can provide significantly better solutions within reasonable solving times, highlighting its potential to support fuel break management and planning decisions.
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This brief summarizes a recent study that assessed factors driving perceived defensibility through the lens of wildland firefighters to learn more about how they evaluate the risks associated with different structures. It provides insight into structure defensibility in action, and the factors that firefighters may consider when they engage a fire near structures.
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This review explores Integrated Fire Management as both an adaptation and mitigation strategy for altered fire regimes. It provides an overview of the progress and challenges associated with implementing Integrated Fire Management across different regions worldwide. The review also proposes five core objectives and outlines a roadmap of incremental steps for advancing Integrated Fire Management as a strategy to adapt to ongoing and future changes in fire regimes, thereby maximizing its potential to benefit both people and nature.
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We developed species distribution models with dryland-focused predictors to project environmental suitability changes across the entirety of three pinyon and six juniper species ranges. We identify areas of robust suitability change by combining suitability projections from multiple emissions scenarios and time periods. PJ species’ suitabilities respond to many temperature and moisture covariates expected to change in the future. Projected responses among PJ species are highly variable, ranging from modest declines with concurrent gains for overall little net change to wide-ranging declines with no gains for overall range contractions. Environmental suitability is projected to decline broadly across the arid United States Southwest and remain relatively stable across the northern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau. Our results suggest unique responses of PJ species to future climate change. We found that species were projected to experience more losses than gains in suitability, for overall range shrinks rather than shifts. Land managers have the capacity to increase woodland resilience to drought, and our results can inform rangeland-wide management planning and conservation efforts in PJ woodlands.
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To assess the effects of seeding on the genetic diversity of wildland populations, we conducted a genetic survey of bluebunch wheatgrass (Pseudoroegneria spicata) populations within the perimeter of a recent megafire in southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho, United States. We genotyped 760 samples with 10 polymorphic loci. We found similar genetic diversity in populations four to 5 years after seeding compared to unseeded populations that were either burned or unburned. Furthermore, genetic diversity neither increased nor decreased with distance from the fire’s edge, suggesting that wind dispersal from neighboring remnant populations plays a minor role in immediate post-fire recovery compared to resprouting and germination from the seed bank. Though no change was detected in the short term, this survey of genetic variation after a post-fire seeding provides an empirical baseline that can be used to track changes in genetic diversity of these wildland populations over time.
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We measured soil organic carbon (SOC) and its particulate organic carbon (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) constituents in the surface soils of sites that had sagebrush canopies but differed in whether their understories had been invaded by cheatgrass or not, in both warm and relatively colder ecoregions of the western USA. MAOC stocks were 36.1% less in the 0–10 cm depth and 46.1% less in the 10–20 cm depth in the cheatgrass-invaded stands compared to the uninvaded stands of the warmer Colorado Plateau, but not in the cooler and more carbon-rich Wyoming Basin ecoregion. In plots where cheatgrass increased SOC, it was via unstable POC. These findings indicate that cheatgrass effects on the distribution of soil carbon among POC and MAOC fractions may vary among ecoregions, and that cheatgrass can reduce forms of carbon that are otherwise considered stable and ‘secure’, i.e. sequestered.