Research and Publications
View article.
We sought to determine the role of local social context in smoke adaptation and gauge interest in adaptation strategies that might reduce exposure. We conducted 46 semi-structured interviews with 56 residents and professionals in Parks, Arizona, USA, a rural community adjacent to public lands regularly affected by smoke. Rural residents think of smoke as an acceptable risk. Efforts to adapt to potential health impacts are minimal, though inaction is driven by diverse reasoning and tradeoffs. Local social context – particularly elements related to government distrust, forest management, and independence – heavily influences interest in uptake of different adaptation strategies as well as affecting access to, and interpretation of, information about smoke risks. Rural approaches to, and understandings of, smoke adaptation vary spatially and temporally. Public interest in broader forest management efforts can be leveraged to engage residents in conversations about proactive smoke adaptation.
View article.
Wildland fire is increasingly a consequence of the climate crisis, with growing impacts on communities and individuals. Wildland firefighters are critical to the successful management of wildland fire, yet very limited research has considered mental health in this population. Although a wealth of research in mental health risk and associated risk and protective factors exists for structural firefighters, unique demands of wildland firefighting such as the seasonal nature of work, the length and intensity of shifts, and the often geographically isolated working conditions, among other factors, require special consideration. The present review considers available literature on mental health in wildland firefighters, highlighting the importance of distinguishing occupation-related risks for firefighters from occupation-specific risks of wildland fire service work, and offers concrete evidence-based recommendations for future work in this high-priority research area.
View article.
Wildfire simulation models are used to derive maps of burn probability (BP) based on fuels, weather, topography and ignition locations, and BP maps are key components of wildfire risk assessments. Few studies have compared BP maps with real-world fires to evaluate their suitability for near-future risk assessment. Here, we evaluated a BP map for the conterminous US based on the large fire simulation model FSim. We compared BP with observed wildfires from 2016 to 2022 across 128 regions representing similar fire regimes (‘pyromes’). We evaluated the distribution of burned areas across BP values, and compared burned area distributions among fire size classes. Across all pyromes, mean BP was moderately correlated with observed burned area. An average of 71% of burned area occurred in higher-BP classes, vs 79% expected. BP underpredicted burned area in the Mountain West, especially for extremely large fires. The FSim BP map was useful for estimating subsequent wildfire hazard, but may have underestimated burned areas where input data did not reflect recent climate change, vegetation change or human ignition patterns.
View article.
Conservationists are increasingly leveraging systematic conservation planning (SCP) to inform restoration actions that enhance biodiversity. However, restoration frequently drives ecological transformations at local scales, potentially resulting in trade-offs among wildlife species and communities. The Conservation Interactions Principle (CIP), coined more than 15 years ago, cautions SCP practitioners regarding the importance of jointly and fully evaluating conservation outcomes across the landscape over long timeframes. However, SCP efforts that guide landscape restoration have inadequately addressed the CIP by failing to tabulate the full value of the current ecological state. The increased application of SCP to inform restoration, reliance on increasingly small areas to sustain at-risk species and ecological communities, ineffective considerations for the changing climate, and increasing numbers of at-risk species, are collectively intensifying the need to consider unintended consequences when prioritizing sites for restoration. Improper incorporation of the CIP in SCP may result in inefficient use of conservation resources through opportunity costs and/or conservation actions that counteract one another. We suggest SCP practitioners can avoid these consequences through a more detailed accounting of the current ecological benefits to better address the CIP when conducting restoration planning. Specifically, forming interdisciplinary teams with expertise in the current and desired ecosystem states at candidate conservation sites; improving data availability; modeling and computational advancements; and applying structured decision-making approaches can all improve the integration of the CIP in SCP efforts. Improved trade-off assessment, spanning multiple ecosystems or states, can facilitate efficient, proactive, and coordinated SCP applications across space and time. In doing so, SCP can effectively guide the siting of restoration actions capable of promoting the full suite of biodiversity in a region.
View article.
The rate of change in invasive annual grass cover describes the trajectory of invasion. This information can be used to fine-tune priority locations and strategies for invasive species treatments. We identified locations with positive, neutral, negative, and variable rates of change. Although rates of change have accelerated, there were many locations with a consistent neutral rate of change in cover. High positive rates of change frequently preceded high invasive annual grass cover, and locations that had low cover rarely had a history of high positive rates of change. We identified potential management opportunities by combining rates of change in cover and percent cover data, illustrating both invasion severity and trajectory. We applied these potential opportunities to a map of the sagebrush biome using example thresholds. This map identifies locations that could be prioritized for different management goals and shows how those areas align with the Sagebrush Conservation Design management
View article.
We used novel data sources to measure how recreation was influenced by fuels reduction efforts under the US Forest Service Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration (CFLR) Program. We used posts to four social media platforms to estimate the number of social media user-days within CFLR landscapes and asked: (1) did visitation within CFLR Program landscapes between 2012 and 2020 change in a manner consistent with the pattern on nearby lands, and (2) was there a relationship between the magnitudes of specific fuel treatment activities within CFLR landscapes and visitation to that landscape? In aggregate, visitation to the CFLR landscapes changed at a rate mirroring the trend observed elsewhere. Within CFLR landscapes, pre-commercial thinning and pruning had slight positive influences on visitation whereas prescribed burning and managed wildfire had slight negative influences.
View article.
In this review, we discuss current research on forest carbon risk from natural disturbance under climate change for the United States, with emphasis on advancements in analytical mapping and modeling tools that have potential to drive research for managing future long-term stability of forest carbon. As a natural mechanism for carbon storage, forests are a critical component of meeting climate mitigation strategies designed to combat anthropogenic emissions. Forests consist of long-lived organisms (trees) that can store carbon for centuries or more. However, trees have finite lifespans, and disturbances such as wildfire, insect and disease outbreaks, and drought can hasten tree mortality or reduce tree growth, thereby slowing carbon sequestration, driving carbon emissions, and reducing forest carbon storage in stable pools, particularly the live and standing dead portions that are counted in many carbon offset programs. Many forests have natural disturbance regimes, but climate change and human activities disrupt the frequency and severity of disturbances in ways that are likely to have consequences for the long-term stability of forest carbon. To minimize negative effects and maximize resilience of forest carbon, disturbance risks must be accounted for in carbon offset protocols, carbon management practices, and carbon mapping and modeling techniques. This requires detailed mapping and modeling of the quantities and distribution of forest carbon across the United States and hopefully one day globally; the frequency, severity, and timing of disturbances; the mechanisms by which disturbances affect carbon storage; and how climate change may alter each of these elements. Several tools (e.g. fire spread models, imputed forest inventory models, and forest growth simulators) exist to address one or more of the aforementioned items and can help inform management strategies that reduce forest carbon risk, maintain long-term stability of forest carbon, and further explore challenges, uncertainties, and opportunities for evaluating the continued potential of, and threats to, forests as viable mechanisms for forest carbon storage, including carbon offsets. A growing collective body of research and technological improvements have advanced the science, but we highlight and discuss key limitations, uncertainties, and gaps that remain.
View article.
Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services.
View article.
To help inform strategic and cost-effective investments, we conducted a quantitative assessment of wildfire risk for the sagebrush biome. We used a geospatial fire modeling approach, customized for the sagebrush biome, to estimate spatially explicit burn probability and expected average annual area burned within three Sagebrush Ecological Integrity classes under the Sagebrush Conservation Design: Core Sagebrush Areas (CSAs), Growth Opportunity Areas (GOAs), and Other Rangeland Areas. We further used indices of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive grasses to characterize fire risk and recovery potential. Our approach indicates that nearly 530,000 ha are likely to burn in a typical contemporary fire year across the highest integrity Sagebrush Ecological Integrity classes (7% in CSAs and 31% in GOAs). Of the CSAs and GOAs likely to burn, nearly 9000 and 66000 ha, respectively, are expected to have low resilience or resistance and therefore highest loss potential. Cost-effective conservation investments should include wildfire protection for high-integrity sagebrush with low resilience or resistance. Protection objectives may be met with strategically placed fuel breaks intended to enhance fire prevention and containment efforts. Fuel treatments, including prescribed fire and mechanical activities outside of fuel breaks, are by contrast best suited for high-integrity areas with relatively high resilience and resistance. Those activities should be risk-informed and intended to maintain or improve ecological integrity and resilience to wildfire rather than to exclude fire altogether.
View article.
We found that within the sagebrush biome, fuel breaks are generally located in areas with high burn probability and are thus positioned well to intercept potential wildfires. However, fuel breaks are also frequently positioned in areas with lower predicted fuel break effectiveness relative to the sagebrush biome overall. Fuel breaks also are spatially associated with high invasive grass cover, indicating the need to better understand the causal relationship between fuel breaks and annual invasive grasses. We also show that the fuel break network is dense within priority wildlife habitats. Dense fuel breaks within wildlife habitats may trade off wildfire protection for decreased integrity of such habitats.