Climate & Fire & Adaptation

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Accounting for aboveground carbon storage in shrubland and woodland ecosystems in the Great Basin

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This study used a combination of field estimates, remotely sensed data, and existing land cover maps to create a spatially explicit estimate of aboveground carbon storage within the Great Basin, a semi‐arid region of the western United States encompassing 643,500 km2 of shrubland and woodland vegetation. The Great Basin ecosystems contain an estimated 295.4 Tg in aboveground carbon, which is almost double the previous estimates that only accounted for forested ecosystems in the same area. Aboveground carbon was disproportionately stored in pinyon‐juniper woodland (43.7% carbon, 16.9% land area), while the shrubland systems accounted for roughly half of the total land area (49.1%) and one‐third of the total carbon. Our results emphasize the importance of distinguishing and accounting for the distinctive contributions of shrubland and woodland ecosystems when creating carbon storage estimates for dryland regions.

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Rethinking resilience to wildfire

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This study brought together ecologists and social scientists to confront this challenge and consider how to better promote both social and ecological resilience to a more flammable world. The result led to the new insights highlighted in the paper “Rethinking resilience to wildfire” – that catastrophic wildfires are forcing us to rethink what social–ecological resilience to wildfire means, and accept that more diverse approaches to resilience thinking are needed to facilitate human coexistence with wildfire.

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ANREP 2021 Virtual Conference

Visit ANREP 2020 Conference website.

The Association of Natural Resource Extension Professionals (ANREP) conference theme was: Place-Based and Future-Focused: Fulfilling the Land Grant Mission in an Evolving Landscape. It was held virtually May 23-26, 2021.

The conference offers abundant opportunities for professional growth and development. Presentations, field tours, workshops, poster displays and informal networking provide a variety of options for skill building, knowledge sharing, collaboration and idea generation in a welcoming atmosphere.

 

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An uncertain future: Climate resilience of first-generation ranchers

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This study examines similarities and divergences in socioeconomic factors, management practices, drought adaptation strategies, information needs, and values between FGRs and multigenerational ranchers (MGRs). Survey results indicate FGRs and MGRs are not statistically different demographically and have similar values; however, key differences include FGRs using fewer information sources about ranching, fewer general management practices, and fewer drought adaptation practices. FGRs are also more susceptible to drought, and are underserved by organisations. Their vulnerability is particularly concerning, as many have limited drought experience, are more likely to take risks, and are less likely to find value and/or participate in ranching organisations. The future of rangelands requires that organisations interested in conserving rangelands and supporting ranchers re-evaluate assumptions about why FGRs and MGRs have different information needs beyond simplistic demographic identity, and instead focus on their affinity as FGRs in order to understand the complexity of the processes underlying these differences. We end with suggestions for a research agenda to support the climate resiliency of FGRs and increase the efficacy of support organizations.

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Observed impacts of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in California

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During 1972–2018, California experienced a five‐fold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eight‐fold increase in summer forest‐fire extent. Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4°C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends were consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of summer forest‐fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between VPD and summer forest burned area strongly suggest that nearly all of the increase in summer forest‐fire area during 1972–2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate‐change effects on summer wildfire were less evident in non‐forest. In fall, wind events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires. Among the many processes important to California’s diverse fire regimes, warming‐driven fuel drying is the clearest link between anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire activity to date.

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A tool for projecting rangeland vegetation response to management and climate

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New technologies may enhance management by enabling quantitative testing of assumptions of vegetation response to climate and management. State-and-transition simulation models can keep track of interactions that are too complicated for us to comprehend using only conceptual models. This tool takes conceptual state-and-transition models to the next level, fostering greater communication and dialogue with stakeholders. Based on the models and climate data used here, increased drought may enhance transitions between vegetative states. It is important to be as explicit and quantitative as possible as to how you expect vegetation states or ecosystem processes to transition between one another.

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Climate-altered wetlands: A challenge for waterbirds in the Great Basin

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This study’s findings suggest that a reduced hydroperiod and lower water quality from reduction in water level and flow limits sites used by waterbirds. These factors reduce chick survivorship as they cannot metabolize saline water, which makes suitable freshwater conditions a limiting resource. Collectively, climate-induced changes in Great Basin wetlands suggest a major shift in freshwater ecosystems, resulting in degradation of a continental migratory route. This work illustrates the importance of examining multi-scale changes in critical regional resources to understand their impact across a hemispheric flyway and provides a model to examine other flyways.

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Climate and disturbance influence self‐sustaining stand dynamics of aspen near its range margin

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This study sampled tree age and stand characteristics of isolated aspen forests in the arid Great Basin (USA) to determine if: (1) aspen communities are more fire‐dependent and seral or fire‐independent and stable; (2) ungulate browsing inhibits aspen stability; and (3) temporal patterns of vegetative reproduction (i.e., ramet establishment or “suckering”) are correlated with climate. Aspen size and age class densities strongly fit negative exponential distributions, whether grouped geographically or by functional type, suggesting landscape‐scale persistence. Continuous age distributions and high proportions of recruitment‐sized to overstory trees suggest stability at stand‐scales, with exceptions including stands with higher browsing pressure. Few stands had evidence of fire, and relationships between dead tree size and variability in live tree size suggest a lack of fire‐dependency. Several five‐year averaged climate variables and one sea surface temperature index were correlated with aspen ramet establishment densities over time, with strongest relationships occurring ~5 years prior to establishment year, often followed by inverse relationships ~1 year after. Indeed, aspen establishment density for a recent 41‐year period was reliably reconstructed using antecedent climate conditions derived from a single drought index. Temporally synchronized aspen ramet establishment across the study region may be due to climate‐driven storage of nonstructural carbohydrate reserves in clonal root systems later used for regeneration. Complex regeneration dynamics of these self‐sustaining aspen stands, especially sensitivity to climate variability, suggest they may serve as harbingers of ecological change in the arid Great Basin and in other aspen populations near their range margin.

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Ecosystems, Agriculture, and Rural Communities in a Changing Climate: Findings from the 4th National Climate Assessment

View webinar series recordings from 4th National Climate Assessment.

Shawn Carter, Acting Chief, USGS National Climate Adaptation Center, USGS and
Prasanna Gowda, Research Leader, Grazinglands Research Laboratory, USDA – ARS

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Land use, land cover, and forests in a changing climate: Findings from 4th National Climate Assessment

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The Nation’s authoritative assessment of climate impacts, the Fourth National Climate Assessment Vol. II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States (NCA4 Vol. II) was released in November 2018. This presentation will address the impacts of climate change on land cover and land-use change and forests in the United States. Presenters will discuss the assessment’s findings, including adaptation actions, what we’ve learned since the previous assessment, and what we hope to understand better in the future.

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