Climate & Fire & Adaptation
View the short videos on the importance of aspen (0:53) and aspen restoration (0:44) in Utah.
View brief.
Human-caused climate change alters ecosystem processes ranging from local to global scales. As a consequence of climate change we should expect increased rates and intensities of disturbance events. Though we are only beginning to understand what those impacts might be to aspen forests and their diverse plant and animal assemblages, recent science suggests there may be unavoidable effects. In the face of anticipated climate-ecosystem challenges, contemporary managers are searching for guidance on preserving aspen resilience. We suggest crafting strategic yet cautious approaches to minimize effects and facilitate broad resilience. For instance, monitoring conditions in and near aspen forests will help land managers remain nimble in response to potentially abrupt changes. Although in its infancy, here we synthesize current research that focuses on climate adaptation strategies to improve aspen resilience.
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We use examples of plot data identified from a reference period (1961-1990) and mid-century (2056–2065) analogs across North American biomes to compare and illustrate the outcomes of projected vegetation change and seed transfer. These examples showcase that mid-century analogs may be located in any cardinal direction and vary greatly in spatial distance and abundance from no analog to hundreds depending on the site. The projected vegetative transitions will have substantial impacts on conservation programs and ecosystem services. Our approach highlights the complexity that climate change presents to managing ecosystems, and the need for predictive tools in guiding land management decisions to mitigate future impacts caused by climate change.
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In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.
Workshop information and registration.
The Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service will host a public workshop to present information and gather feedback on a range of topics regarding the science and management of pinyon and juniper woodlands, particularly mature and old-growth forests.
The workshop will occur May 8, 1-5 p.m. and May 9, 9 a.m.-5 p.m., 2024, at the Nugget Casino Resort, 1100 Nugget Ave., Sparks, NV, 89431. This event is part of BLM’s ongoing public comment period on pinyon and juniper woodlands, during which interested parties may also submit comments regarding management and conservation of pinyon and juniper ecosystems. Please see more information on how to comment below.
Workshop information and registration
Topics for the workshop will include classifying the various pinyon and juniper systems and understanding their geographic and population dynamics, methods for assessing woodland conditions, values associated with old-growth pinyon and juniper woodlands, management objectives and effectiveness, and opportunities for increasing climate resilience. Participants will have opportunities to engage and interact on a range of topics.
To attend the event, individuals are required to reserve a spot. This is a two-day workshop, but you must register for both days to attend. To attend on May 8, please register through the eventbrite portal for day one. To attend on May 9, please register through the eventbrite portal for day two.
View article.
Wildfire frequency varied significantly across the sagebrush region, and our statistical model represented much of that variation. Biomass of annual and perennial grasses and forbs, which we used as proxies for fine fuels, influenced wildfire probability. Wildfire probability was highest in areas with high annual forb and grass biomass, which is consistent with the well-documented phenomenon of increased wildfire following annual grass invasion. The effects of annuals on wildfire probability were strongest in places with dry summers. Wildfire probability varied with the biomass of perennial grasses and forbs and was highest at intermediate biomass levels. Climate, which varies substantially across the sagebrush region, was also predictive of wildfire probability, and predictions were highest in areas with a low proportion of precipitation received in summer, intermediate precipitation, and high temperature.
View synthesis.
Increases in fire activity and changes in fire regimes have been documented in recent decades across the western United States. Climate change is expected to continue to exacerbate impacts to forested ecosystems by increasing the frequency, size, and severity of wildfires across the western United States (US). Warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are altering western landscapes and making them more susceptible to high-severity fire. Increases in large patches of high-severity fire can result in significant impacts to landscape processes and ecosystem function and changes to vegetation structure and composition. In this synthesis, we examine the predicted climatic influence on fire regimes and discuss the impacts on fire severity, vegetation dynamics, and the interactions between fire, vegetation, and climate. We describe predicted changes, impacts, and risks related to fire with climate change and discuss how management options may mitigate some impacts of predicted fire severity, and moderate some impacts to forests, carbon, and vegetation changes post fire.
View article and factsheet.
This study uses tree cores gathered at three 4-hectare plots to make inferences about temporal aspects of tree recruitment in pine-dominated ecosystems of the California Sierra Nevada and the Sierra San Petro Martir in northwestern Mexico.
View factsheet.
This report highlights recent science on primary threats to persistent woodlands, identifies the role of changing climate, and highlights new efforts and approaches to develop management strategies focusing on building pinyon-juniper woodland health and climate resilience.
View report.
In the face of this national challenge, Congress took bipartisan action to establish the Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission through the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The legislation charged the 50-member Commission with the ambitious task of creating policy recommendations to address nearly every facet of the wildfire crisis, including mitigation, management, and postfire rehabilitation and recovery. Recognizing the urgency of the crisis, the Commission was given just a single year to conduct a sweeping review of the wildfire system and produce a comprehensive set of policy priorities.