Invasive Species

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We created range-wide phenology forecasts for two problematic invasive annual grasses: cheatgrass, and red brome . We tested a suite of 18 mechanistic phenology models using observations from monitoring experiments, volunteer science, herbarium records, timelapse camera imagery, and downscaled gridded climate data to identify the models that best predicted the dates of flowering and senescence of the two invasive grass species. We found that the timing of flowering and senescence of cheatgrass and red brome were best predicted by photothermal time models that had been adjusted for topography using gridded continuous heat-insolation load index values. Phenology forecasts based on these models can help managers make decisions about when to schedule management actions such as grazing to reduce undesirable invasive grasses and promote forage production, quality, and biodiversity in grasslands; to predict the timing of greatest fire risk after annual grasses dry out; and to select remote sensing imagery to accurately map invasive grasses across topographic and latitudinal gradients. These phenology models also have the potential to be operationalized for within-season or within-year decision support.

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Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata (Ventenata dubia) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas.

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Ecological disturbance can affect carbon storage and stability and is a key consideration for managing lands to preserve or increase ecosystem carbon to ameliorate the global greenhouse gas problem. Dryland soils are massive carbon reservoirs that are increasingly impacted by species invasions and altered fire regimes, including the exotic-grass-fire cycle in the extensive sagebrush steppe of North America. Direct measurement of total carbon in 1174 samples from landscapes of this region that differed in invasion and wildfire history revealed that their impacts depleted soil carbon by 42-49%, primarily in deep horizons, which could amount to 17.1-20.0 Tg carbon lost across the ~400,000 ha affected annually. Disturbance effects on soil carbon stocks were not synergistic, suggesting that soil carbon was lowered to a floor-i.e. a resistant base-level-beneath which further loss was unlikely. Restoration and maintenance of resilient dryland shrublands/rangelands could stabilize soil carbon at magnitudes relevant to the global carbon cycle.

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We seeded perennial grass (Elymus elymoides) at multiple depths to determine susceptibility and resistance. Herbicides were applied at full and reduced rates to mimic the effect of litter in natural systems. We observed reductions in most non-native species in all treatments, but also extensive reductions of native annual forbs, although these were offset at lower application rates, and some species (e.g. Amsinckia tessellata and Microsteris gracilis) were less susceptible than others. Herbicides, particularly indaziflam, reduced E. elymoides emergence, but planting seeds at 2–3 cm depths improved emergence, particularly for imazapic, with 15–68% greater emergence than seeds planted at 1 cm. We suggest surveys for native annual forbs and resistant invaders before applying herbicides and field testing to determine whether reduced rates could provide weed control while maintaining annual forbs. We suggest planting E. elymoides at 2–3 cm when applying herbicides, an approach that may be effective for other species. Herbicide use can be an effective tool, but our results indicate that mitigation of nontarget effects will be needed to maintain native plant diversity.