Research and Publications
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Fires are a natural part of the Pacific Northwest’s ever-changing ecosystem. As people continue to live and build in fire-prone landscapes, they must take steps to protect their lives, homes, properties and communities. These safeguards are needed in rural, suburban and urban environments, which are all prone to wildfire devastation.
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Theory predicts that effective environmental governance requires that the scales of management account for the scales of environmental processes. A good example is community wildfire protection planning. Plan boundaries that are too narrowly defined may miss sources of wildfire risk originating at larger geographic scales whereas boundaries that are too broadly defined dilute resources. Although the concept of scale (mis)matches is widely discussed in literature on risk mitigation as well as environmental governance more generally, rarely has the concept been rigorously quantified. We introduce methods to address this limitation, and we apply our approach to assess scale matching among Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs) in the western US. Our approach compares two metrics: (1) the proportion of risk sources encompassed by planning jurisdictions (sensitivity) and (2) the proportion of area in planning jurisdictions in which risk can originate (precision). Using data from 852 CWPPs and a published library of 54 million simulated wildfires, we demonstrate a trade-off between sensitivity and precision. Our analysis reveals that spatial scale match—the product of sensitivity and precision—has an n-shaped relationship with jurisdiction size and is maximal at approximately 500 km2. Bayesian multilevel models further suggest that functional scale match—via neighboring, nested, and overlapping planning jurisdictions—may compensate for low sensitivity. This study provides a rare instance of a quantitative framework to measure scale match in environmental planning and has broad implications for risk mitigation as well as in other environmental governance settings.
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Before workshops on prescribed fire for private lands, we surveyed participants in six prescribed fires on private lands workshops in the Central Sierra Nevada from 2018 to 2019 (N = 172). We found that participants “want to use” pile burns and broadcast prescribed fires more than other land management treatments. There was also a strong interest in mechanical treatments in contrast to low interest in grazing. Some participants had “heard about” and “want to use” some pathways to apply prescribed fire on their lands, including government programs, contractors, friends and family, and Prescribed Burn Associations (PBAs). People had multiple objectives for their prescribed fire goals, and the majority wanted to promote ecosystem health, e.g., reduce fire hazards, foster natural land health, and reduce invasive plants. Perceived barriers were greatest for safety, cost, and resources while fewer participants perceived permits as a barrier.
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Study design, interview discussions, and field observations from both case studies reveal the importance of nuanced and responsive approaches for the use of 3D visualizations, with an emphasis on the implementation of protocols that ensure the risk of harm to the intended audience is minimal. We share five considerations for use of visualizations as communication tools with public and professional audiences, expanding existing research into post-fire spaces: (1) determine whether the use of visualizations will truly benefit users; (2) connect users to visualizations by incorporating local values; (3) provide context around model uncertainty; (4) design and share visualizations in ways that meet the needs of the user; (5) be cognizant of the emotional impacts that sharing wildfire visualizations can have.
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Public support is crucial for successful fuels management, but vocal opposition can mask broader yet quieter community acceptance. It is helpful for land managers to have a picture of all perspectives, not just the most vocal ones.
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Fires in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are an important issue globally. To understand the change of WUI, we develop a 9 km worldwide unified wildland-urban interface database for 2001–2020 with Random Forest models and satellite data. We find that WUI has been increasing in all populated continents from 2001 to 2020 and the global relative increase is 24%, with the largest relative increase (∼59%) over Africa. Global total fire counts decrease by 10% from 2005 to 2020, whereas the WUI fraction of fire counts increases by 23%. The global total burned area decreases by 22% from 2005 to 2020, whereas the WUI fraction of burned area increases by 35%. These are mainly due to the expansion of WUI area. On all the populated continents, the WUI fractions of fire counts are higher than the WUI fractions of burned area, implying that WUI fires tend to have smaller sizes than wildland fires. We also project future WUI changes for the years 2030 and 2040, together with the projection of future fire burned area under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). The projected global WUI fraction (excluding Antarctica and the oceans) is 5.9% in 2040 compared to 4.8% in 2020. The global WUI fraction of burned area is projected to increase from now to 2040 under most scenarios analyzed in this study, unless the WUI area stays at the 2020 level together with the projected burned area under SSP4-4.5. This study is a first step to understanding the changes of WUI fires at the global scale and demonstrates a growing importance of WUI fires. The global multi-year WUI and WUI fire datasets developed in this study can facilitate future work quantifying the impacts of WUI fires on air quality and climate.
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The team, led by researcher Elise Zarri and supported by Working Lands for Wildlife and the Bureau of Land Management, found that birds whose habitat needs aligned closely with Greater Sage-grouse—Sage Thrashers, Vesper Sparrows, and Brewer’s Sparrows—successfully raised more offspring in areas where encroaching conifers had been removed. The data demonstrated that even though sagebrush habitat management was undertaken on behalf of one particular species of conservation concern, other species in the area benefited—indicating that Greater Sage-grouse may serve as an “umbrella” species for conservation of other organisms within its ecosystem.
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While inconvenient for your average hiker or boater, major shifts in the weather can be deadly for firefighters. Longer and more intense fire seasons make accurate and timely weather predictions crucial to firefighter safety. To answer this need, the Fire Weather Alert System (FWAS) was developed by Jason Forthofer, Research Mechanical Engineer, and Natalie Wagenbrenner, Research Meteorologist, both from the Rocky Mountain Research Station’s Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory. The FWAS is a mobile app that gathers weather data from many sources into a single convenient space and provides firefighters with individualized, easy-to-use, and timely weather alerts on their phones.
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Legal, operational, and administrative factors have hindered the implementation of proposed wildland fire risk reduction management actions. Investing in steep-slope systems, expanding use of temporary roads, and revising administrative rules to allow for appropriately tailored mechanical thinning in special conservation areas are possible ways to meet fuel reduction treatment objectives of the USDA Forest Service Wildfire Crisis Strategy in twenty-one landscapes across the western United States. Broadening the land base available for mechanical treatment allows for flexibility to develop treatment plans that optimize across the multiple dimensions of effective landscape-scale fuel treatment design and restore fire as a key ecosystem process.
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During plan development, we recommend that Strategic Fire Zones (SFZs) be identified in large blocks (≥ 2,000 ha) of Federal forest lands, buffered (≥ 1–2.4 km) from the wildland-urban interface for the reintroduction of beneficial fire. In SFZs, lightning ignitions, as well as prescribed and cultural burns, would be used to reduce fuels and restore ecosystem services. Although such Zones have been successfully established in a limited number of western National Parks and Wilderness Areas, we identify extensive remote areas in the western US (8.3–12.7 million ha), most outside of wilderness (85–88%), where they could be established. Potential wildland fire Operational Delineations or PODs would be used to identify SFZ boundaries. We outline steps to identify, implement, monitor, and communicate the use and benefits of SFZs.