Synthesis / Tech Report
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This Association for Fire Ecology position paper is an organization-wide initiative with two objectives: to determine the prevalence of these two issues throughout the profession, including management, education, and research; and to provide a set of principles and actions that are strongly recommended for implementation in order to foster organizational cultures of respect, equity, and parity.
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This report evaluated how changes in climate in the United States would lead to changes by the middle and the end of the current century in annual spending to suppress wildfires on USDA Forest Service (FS) and Department of the Interior (DOI) managed lands.
To do this, researchers developed a two-stage model. In the first stage, we analyzed the historical relationships between area burned on FS and DOI lands and maximum daily temperatures and other variables. In the second stage, we analyzed historical relationships between area burned and suppression spending.
Then, using projections of climate obtained from general circulation models, we projected area burned, and used this projection in our second stage model to project spending on suppression. All spending projections were done with constant 2014 dollars. We made projections for mid-century (2041-2059) and late-century (2081-2099). Uncertainty in the area burned and suppression spending was quantified using Monte Carlo simulation methods, incorporating parametric uncertainty from the two stage models and climate uncertainty from the alternative climate projections.
Results show that median area burned on DOI lands is projected to increase, compared to the amount observed between 1995 and 2013, by 99% by mid-century and by 189% by late-century. For FS lands, the increases are projected to be 123% by mid-century and 221%, respectively. Given such changes in area burned, DOI spending is projected to increase by 45% by mid-century and by 72% by late-century. For the FS, annual spending is projected to rise by 117% and 192%, respectively. Such changes would entail an increase in dollars spent in total across both agencies from a historical average of $1.33 billion to a projected $2.63 billion in mid-century and $3.47 billion by late-century.
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This synthesis examines the fundamental spatial and temporal disconnects between the specific policies that have been crafted to address our wildfire challenges. The biophysical changes in fuels, wildfire behavior, and climate have created a new set of conditions for which our wildfire governance system is poorly suited to address. To address these challenges, a reorientation of goals is needed to focus on creating an anticipatory wildfire governance system focused on social and ecological resilience. Key characteristics of this system could include the following: (1) not taking historical patterns as givens; (2) identifying future social and ecological thresholds of concern; (3) embracing diversity/heterogeneity as principles in ecological and social responses; and (4) incorporating learning among different scales of actors to create a scaffolded learning system.
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This report is a synthesis of current knowledge on the effects of wildfire and fuels treatments in riparian areas of the interior western United States, and includes the following: (1) a literature review of fire effects on riparian and aquatic characteristics and functions, provided as background for considering the need and potential impacts of fuel treatments; (2) a review of the potential effects of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments on riparian and aquatic resources and biota; (3) results of an online survey of resource managers, summarizing information about proposed and completed fuel reduction projects in riparian areas and wetlands in the interior west; (4) suggestions for pre- and post project-level monitoring for riparian fuels projects; and (5) a presentation of case studies, describing riparian fuel treatments with different objectives and methods.
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This technical manual provides regional accounts of historical and current uses of fire, and then discusses fire effects on wildlife and the challenges of using prescribed fire in each system.
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The Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy outlined the need for coordinated, science-based adaptive management to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem. A key component of this management approach is the identification of knowledge gaps that limit implementation of effective strategies to meet current management challenges. The tasks and actions identified in the Strategy address several broad topics related to management of the sagebrush ecosystem. This science plan is organized around these topics and specifically focuses on fire, invasive plant species and their effects on altering fire regimes, restoration, sagebrush and greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), and climate and weather.
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The information and map products described in this report can help land managers prioritize conservation efforts at the species’ range scale.
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This synthesis presents an ecohydrologic perspective on the effects of fire on rangeland runoff and erosion through a review of scientific literature spanning many decades. Objectives are: (1) to introduce rangeland hydrology and erosion concepts necessary for understanding hydrologic impacts of fire; (2) to describe how climate, vegetation, and soils affect rangeland hydrology and erosion; and (3) to use examples from literature to illustrate how fire interacts with key ecohydrologic relationships. The synthesis is intended to provide a useful reference and conceptual framework for understanding and evaluating impacts of fire on rangeland runoff and erosion.
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The Fire Effects Information System (FEIS) just completed and published online a synthesis of the biology, ecology, and fire relationships for the greater sage-grouse and Gunnison sage-grouse.
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This report examined multiple climate change effects on cattle production for U.S. rangelands to estimate relative change and identify sources of vulnerability among seven regions. Climate change effects to 2100 projected (1) an increase in forage quantity in northerly regions, (2) a move toward grassier vegetation types overall but with considerable spatial heterogeneity, (3) a rapid increase in the number of heat-stress days across all regions, and (4) higher forage variability for most regions.