Climate & Fire & Adaptation
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This study used pollen and high-resolution charcoal analysis of lake sediment to reconstruct a 7600 yr vegetation and fire history from Anthony Lake, located in the Blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon. From 7300 to 6300 cal yr BP, the forest was composed primarily of Populus , and fire was common, indicating warm, dry conditions. From 6300 to 3000 cal yr BP, Populus declined as Pinus and Picea increased in abundance and fire became less frequent, suggesting a shift to cooler, wetter conditions. From 3000 cal yr BP to present, modern-day forests composed of Pinus and Abies developed, and from 1650 cal yr BP to present, fires increased. We utilized the modern climate-analogue approach to explain the potential synoptic climatological processes associated with regional fire. The results indicate that years with high fire occurrence experience positive 500 mb height anomalies centered over the Great Basin, with anomalous southerly component of flow delivering dry air into the region and with associated sinking motions to further suppress precipitation. It is possible that such conditions became more common over the last 1650 cal yr BP, supporting an increase in fire despite the shift to more mesic conditions.
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Comparisons of observed and simulated historical area burned indicate simulated future fire vulnerability could be underestimated by 3% in the Sierra Nevada and overestimated by 3% in the Rocky Mountains. Projections show that water‐limited forests in the Rocky Mountains, Southwest, and Great Basin regions will be the most vulnerable to future drought‐related mortality, and vulnerability to future fire will be highest in the Sierra Nevada and portions of the Rocky Mountains. High carbon‐density forests in the Pacific coast and western Cascades regions are projected to be the least vulnerable to either drought or fire. Importantly, differences in climate projections lead to only 1% of the domain with conflicting low and high vulnerability to fire and no area with conflicting drought vulnerability. Our drought vulnerability metrics could be incorporated as probabilistic mortality rates in earth system models, enabling more robust estimates of the feedbacks between the land and atmosphere over the 21st century.
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Find research briefs, tools, and more on specific topics in natural resource sciences and management related to climate change
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This study quantified relationships between annual climate conditions and regeneration of ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir, two ecologically and economically important conifer species in low-elevation forests of western North America. We found that regeneration exhibited a threshold response to annual climate conditions and the forests we sampled crossed these climate thresholds in the past 20 years, resulting in fewer recruitment opportunities through time. In areas that have crossed climatic thresholds for regeneration, stand-replacing fires may result in abrupt ecosystem transitions to nonforest states.
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Bristlecone pine has weathered many climate changes. They’ve been getting punched in the face their entire species history and even, in some ways, thrive in the face of adversity. But whether they can make those adjustments in their range fast enough to keep up with climate change, that’s the question.
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New fire management paradigms are emerging that recognize fire is inevitable, and in many cases desirable. During this webinar you will be introduced to a new process for spatial fire planning using tools such as Potential Control Line atlases (PCLs), Quantitative wildfire Risk Assessments (QRAs), and Suppression Difficulty Index (SDI). Chris Dunn, Oregon State Univ, will demonstrate how these tools can align wildfire management decisions and actions, from the development of strategic wildfire response zones to in situ wildfire response decisions that balance operational success, firefighter safety and values at risk.
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In increasingly arid regions such as the western U.S., water managers are learning that careful management and restoration of watershed ecosystems, including thinning trees and conducting prescribed burns, are important tools in coping with a hotter, drier climate.
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This publication identifies areas where big sagebrush populations are most and least vulnerable to climate change and demonstrates where continued investment in sagebrush conservation and restoration could have the most impact.
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With increasing fire season duration and complexities in the fire management environment come opportunities to scale up the application of prescribed fire. In this webinar, we will explore the challenges climate change poses for fire managers, as well as the opportunities present in more numerous and longer prescribed burn windows with the increasing availability of fuels to burn.
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Ephemeral snowpacks, or those that persist for < 60 continuous days, are challenging to observe and model because snow accumulation and ablation occur during the same season. This has left ephemeral snow understudied, despite its widespread extent. Using 328 site years from the Great Basin, we show that ephemeral snowmelt causes a 70-days-earlier soil moisture response than seasonal snowmelt. In addition, deep soil moisture response was more variable in areas with seasonal snowmelt. To understand Great Basin snow distribution, we used MODIS and Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) data to map snow extent. Estimates of maximum continuous snow cover duration from SNODAS consistently overestimated MODIS observations by >25 days in the lowest (<1500 m) and highest (>2500 m) elevations. During this time period snowpack was highly variable. The maximum seasonal snow cover during water years 2005–2014 was 64 % in 2010 and at a minimum of 24 % in 2014. We found that elevation had a strong control on snow ephemerality, and nearly all snowpacks over 2500 m were seasonal except those on south-facing slopes. Additionally, we used SNODAS-derived estimates of solid and liquid precipitation, melt, sublimation, and blowing snow sublimation to define snow ephemerality mechanisms. In warm years, the Great Basin shifts to ephemerally dominant as the rain–snow transition increases in elevation. Given that snow ephemerality is expected to increase as a consequence of climate change, physics-based modeling is needed that can account for the complex energetics of shallow snowpacks in complex terrain. These modeling efforts will need to be supported by field observations of mass and energy and linked to finer remote sensing snow products in order to track ephemeral snow dynamics.