Climate & Fire & Adaptation
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This interactive map identifies frequently threatened towns and cities, including the different sizes and distances of wildfires from nearby communities.
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Adaptation strategies for rangeland vegetation focus on increasing resilience of rangeland ecosystems, primarily through non-native species control and prevention. Ecologically based non-native plant management focuses on strategies to repair damaged ecological processes that facilitate invasion, and seeding of desired natives can be done where seed availability and dispersal of natives are low. Proactive management to prevent establishment of non-native species is also critical (early detection-rapid response), including tactics such as weed-free policies, education of employees and the public, and collaboration among multiple agencies to control weeds. Livestock grazing can also be managed through the development of site-specific indicators that inform livestock movement guides and allow for maintenance and enhancement of plant health.
View recorded webinar.
Researchers from the USFS PNW Research Station and Case Research synthesized model projections of changes in vegetation and fire across tribal lands in the PNW. They will demonstrate how these changes will impact economically and culturally important ecosystem services and how this information can be used for adaptation planning.
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Projections of worsening wildfire conditions under climate change are a major concern in policy and management, but there is little understanding of geographical variation in fire-climate relationships. This analysis relating climate variables to historical fire activity across the United States showed substantial variability in the importance of different seasonal temperature and precipitation variables and of climate overall in explaining fire activity. Climate was significantly less important where humans were more prevalent, suggesting that human influence could override or even exceed the effect of climate change on fire activity. Although climate change may play a significant role in altering future fire regimes, geographical context and human influence should also be accounted for in management and policy decisions.
View Chapter 9 of the book, Exotic brome-grasses in arid and semiarid ecosystems of the western US: causes, consequences, and management implications.
A prominent goal of invasive plant management is to prevent or reduce the spread of invasive species into uninvaded landscapes and regions. Monitoring and control efforts often rely on scientific knowledge of suitable habitat for the invasive species. However, rising temperatures and altered precipitation projected with climate change are likely to shift the geographic range of that suitable habitat. Here, we review experimental and modeling studies of climatic limits to exotic annual Bromus distribution in the Intermountain West in the context of projections of future climate change.
View fact sheet, pg. 60.
This fact sheet provides land managers with information that can help identify different aspen types, assess the condition of aspen stands, and prioritize stands for restoration using appropriate treatments.
View all topics reviewed in the Fact Sheet series.
View fact sheet.
It is likely that increasing temperatures will stress native sagebrush steppe species in the lowest, hottest basins more than in cooler and wetter upland habitats. Second, the effect of climate change on cheatgrass and fire is critical but uncertain. Regional warming will increase the frequency of hot, dry conditions that promote fire, but droughts could dampen the fire cycle by limiting the production of fine fuels. Third, the adaptive capacity of sagebrush is unknown and research on the potential for sagebrush to adapt to climate change should be a high priority.
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Big sagebrush cover decreased significantly in response to spring temperatures. On the other hand, cheatgrass cover and Sandberg’s bluegrass cover increased mostly in wetter years. Three other species analyzed, three-tip sagebrush, needle-and-thread grass and bluebunch wheatgrass, showed very weak responses to annual climate. This analysis shows that species commonly found together may differ in how they respond to annual climate variation. The weak response to annual climate variation we observed is in contrast to the strong sensitivity to climate predicted by species distribution models. Our analysis suggests that species’ responses to climate may require long-term changes in climate or may be driven by other indirect effects of climate, such as fire frequency.
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The primary goal of this project was to assess the effect of climate change on carbon cycling in mature sagebrush ecosystems. We used initial soil characteristics and carbon values for three location and modeled future climate at those locations for four different climate scenarios. We found that mature sagebrush ecosystems continued to act as carbon sinks into the future under all different climate change scenarios. The magnitude of carbon storage differed depending on initial conditions and soil characteristics at each site. Climate change may affect the potential for sequestration by increasing carbon loss through respiration, but we found that increased losses were offset by increased gains through greater primary production.
Forecasts of sagebrush distribution across western land management agencies: Who owns the sagebrush?
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Species distribution models were used to predict how sagebrush distribution could change in response to climate change across land management agencies in the West. Models predict that sagebrush habitats will shift northward and upward in elevation and decrease greatly in extent. Mountainous higher elevation areas were predicted to maintain more sagebrush. U.S. Forest Service lands were predicted to lose proportionally less sagebrush area than non-federal land or the BLM. Analysis suggests that some agencies such as the BLM with the most experience managing sagebrush will lose much of this habitat, while other agencies such as the USFS may have new sagebrush habitats to manage.