Climate & Fire & Adaptation
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In the future, areas where sagebrush will expand, the leading edge, are predicted to be on the northern edge of its current range—predominately northeast Montana. Conversely, areas where the current sagebrush distribution is predicted to contract, the trailing edge, reside at the southern edge of the current distribution, including the Great Basin. Both of these projected shifts are most likely in response to predicted increased minimum temperature and changes in precipitation amount and seasonality. Climate and hydrological factors have the potential to strongly affect sagebrush regeneration because sagebrush does not reproduce asexually and depends solely on germination rates and seedling survival. By exploring these relationships using an ecohydrologic simulation model, we found that sagebrush germination is not expected to be limiting at either the leading or trailing edge. However, seedling survival was expected to decrease at the trailing edge while increasing at the leading edge.
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Public land management agencies are under increasing pressure to consider climate change impacts in their land-use planning process. As a first step, many agencies are conducting vulnerability assessments to identify the components of an ecosystem, or conservation targets, most at-risk from climate change. Vulnerability assessment is the first step towards a climate change adaptation plan.
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Join Climate Science for a discussion on how climatic changes can influence wildland fire activity across the globe and how these critical fire weather variables have changed over the last 40 years.
These changes in key weather variables have combined to both lengthen the fire season and increase the fire weather severity within the fire season. With more area burned each year, the Forest Service is exploring innovate ways to finance conservation and restoration work. The Blue Forest Conservation’s Forest Resilience Bond invests in restoration projects that protect forest health, mitigating both wildfire and drought risk. Contracting with both public and private beneficiaries to monetize the multifaceted benefits of forest restoration, the Forest Resilience Bond creates value for a diverse set of stakeholders (including the US Forest Service, water and electric utilities, private water-dependent companies, state governments, and insurance companies).
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The climate of the US is strongly connected to the changing global climate. The statements below highlight past, current, and projected climate changes for the US and the globe.
Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901–2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes, and the last three years have been the warmest years on record for the globe. These trends are expected to continue over climate timescales.
This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.
90 second video.
In this video, Matthew Hurteau — assistant professor of forest resources at Penn State University — explains how warming temperatures, prolonged drought, and a century’s worth of fire suppression policy are “priming the system to make it more flammable.”
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As the predicted impacts of climate change are becoming more apparent, natural resource managers are faced with the task of developing climate adaptation plans. These managers need state-of-the-art, scientifically based information upon which to base these management plans and decisions consistently across California and the Great Basin. In this webinar, principal investigator Lorraine Flint, USGS, provides an overview of the project and emerging results. The project applies historical, current, and projected climate data to a regional water model to examine water availability, biodiversity, and conservation. Analysis of this climate and hydrology data will help managers understand areas in the region and landscape where the effects of climate change are expected to be the most profound. The study also addresses how the environment is likely to change and how certain the scientific community is about these changes. Collaboration among managers, scientists, conservation organizations, and others will guide the utility, understandability, relevance, and accessibility of the findings from this project.
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On this National Park Service learning site you will find a variety of ways to hone your knowledge and skills for interpreting climate change. The modules are designed for self-study, in your own time and at your own pace. There are four modules: 1) Introduction to Interpreting Climate Change, 2) Knowledge of the Resource Issue, 3) Knowledge of the Audience, and 4) Appropriate Techniques and Strategies.
This webinar with Francis Kilkenny, Research Biologist with the USFS-RMRS, discusses seed zones as they relate to and become increasingly important with climate change.
In this webinar, Faith Ann Heinsch, Research Ecologist, RMRS Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, presents a synthesis of research on climate change in the western U.S., with new research results specific to the eastern Great Basin and options for managers to consider.
Topics include:
- Current ecosystem responses to increased temperatures and drought in the western U.S.
- Predicted future climate change for the western U.S.
- Projections for increased fire
- Impacts on public management
A multidisciplinary team of agency and university researchers presented assessments of current connectivity of riparian vegetation and wildlife habitat including sage-grouse and projections of connectivity for multiple species of animals and plants under different scenarios of environmental change.
Workshop presentations in pdf format:
Great Basin Fire Science Delivery Project– Eugénie MontBlanc
Great Basin Research and Management Partnership – Jeanne Chambers
Great Basin Landscape Conservation Cooperative – Mike Pellant
Great Basin Environmental Program website – Bob Alverts
Connectivity for greater sage-grouse – Steve Knick
Projecting Current and Future Connectivity– Erica Fleishman
Connectivity Analysis Toolkit – Carlos Carroll
Data Basin – Tosha Comendant
This workshop was a collaborative effort of the Great Basin Fire Science Exchange and the Great Basin Connectivity Working Group.